Grazer AK vs Ried: match statistics

Grazer AK, as the home side, holds an advantage in key goal metrics: at home they score 1.46 and concede 1.31 per match, while Ried on the road scores 1.23 and concedes 1.54, giving the hosts the edge in both phases. In the last 5 fixtures Grazer has scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and won 3 of 5, averaging 1.8 points per game, whereas Ried has 8 goals in their last 5 (1.6 per match) and averages 1.4 points per game. Ried records more on-target shots away (3.77 vs 3.08), but Grazer’s home efficiency is higher (conversion 13% vs 11%) and the hosts fail to score in only 15% of home matches versus 31% of Ried’s away games, which increases the hosts’ chance to find the net. Additionally, Ried lose as many as 54% of away games, while Grazer have only a 23% home loss rate and a home goal difference of +2 versus the visitors’ -4. Therefore I forecast a home win; I assess the probability of a home victory at 55%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 20%.

Statistical analysis favors a 'both teams to score' scenario: Ried has a seasonal BTTS of 62% and as high as 80% in the last 5 matches, while Grazer AK registers 46% seasonally and 40% in the last 5, providing a strong signal from the visitors' side. Ried concedes an average of 1.54 goals this season and 1.6 in the last 5, and Grazer scores 1.31 seasonally and 1.8 in the last 5; additionally Grazer’s xG for is 1.45 versus Ried’s xG against at 1.60, which increases the likelihood of a home goal. Conversely Ried generates xG 1.23, and Grazer allows xG against 1.24, with Ried averaging 3.77 shots on target versus Grazer’s 3.69, so the visitors also have conditions to score. Clean sheets are just 15% for Ried versus 31% for Grazer, and the league BTTS rate is 56%, confirming matches in this league often finish Goal/Goal. Considering Ried’s 80% BTTS in the last 5 and the similar xG and shot numbers for both teams, I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No.

Both teams have a high percentage of matches with over 1.5 goals: Grazer AK 85% and Ried 77%, which is a strong signal for Over 1.5. xG-based projection using home attack xG 1.45 and away defense xG 1.60 indicates about 1.53 expected goals for Grazer, while Ried’s attack xG 1.23 and home defense xG 1.24 indicate about 1.24 for the visitors, totaling roughly 2.77 goals. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 9 goals (1.8 per match), the visitors 8 goals (1.6 per match), and the league average goals is 2.71, which further supports a scenario with at least two strikes. Seasonal data for higher lines: Over 2.5 is 46% for Grazer and 54% for Ried, which combined with the expected total of 2.77 gives a moderate edge to Over 2.5 (I estimate 56%), whereas Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 23% vs 31%, I estimate 27%). Therefore the best line to back appears to be Over 1.5 — strong backing 85%/77%, xG 1.53+1.24=2.77 and recent form 1.8/1.6 all favor this option.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1): a draw at the break occurs in 38% of cases, and Grazer AK has a season win rate of 46% versus Ried’s 31%. Grazer AK also has a clear advantage after the break — they average 1.46 goals in second halves and have scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90, while Ried concedes an average of 1.00 goal after half-time and has an expected goals against of 1.60. At half-time the situation is usually balanced: hosts score an average of 0.46 goals by the break, visitors 0.69, and both teams have 62% clean sheets at half-time, which favors 0:0 draws or low first-half scores. Taking this into account, I assign the highest probability to the X/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (23%), then 1/1 (20%) and 2/2 (18%), with the remaining combinations allocated smaller shares.