Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town: match statistics
Grimsby Town presents a significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and an impressive +10 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match, which is vastly superior to Fleetwood's 1.0 away goals. The key factor is the xG advantage - Grimsby generates 1.81 xG in home matches against a mere 1.43 xG for Fleetwood on the road, indicating a clear qualitative edge in created chances. Fleetwood has a solid recent streak (4 draws in 5 matches), suggesting defensive stability, but a mere 33% away win rate and a negative goal difference point to struggles in securing points away from home. Considering all the statistics, Grimsby should win, although the visitors' defensive organization might turn this into a closely contested match.
Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grimsby Town played Fleetwood Town in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 17 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Grimsby Town: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Fleetwood Town: 1-4-0, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grimsby Town scores 1.39 and concedes 1.11 goals per match. Fleetwood Town scores 1.27 and concedes 1.22. League average: 2.56 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grimsby Town 47%, Fleetwood Town 68%. Over 2.5: Grimsby Town 42%, Fleetwood Town 49%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Grimsby Town has higher xG: 1.58 vs 1.43. Grimsby Town: 13.7 shots per match, Fleetwood Town: 12.5.
Match halves
Grimsby Town: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.67. Fleetwood Town: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.73.
Goals by minute
Grimsby Town: 31-45+ (12 goals). Fleetwood Town: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.56 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Grimsby Town presents a significantly better home form with a 44% win rate and an impressive +10 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts score an average of 1.5 goals per home match, which is vastly superior to Fleetwood's 1.0 away goals. The key factor is the xG advantage - Grimsby generates 1.81 xG in home matches against a mere 1.43 xG for Fleetwood on the road, indicating a clear qualitative edge in created chances. Fleetwood has a solid recent streak (4 draws in 5 matches), suggesting defensive stability, but a mere 33% away win rate and a negative goal difference point to struggles in securing points away from home. Considering all the statistics, Grimsby should win, although the visitors' defensive organization might turn this into a closely contested match.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grimsby Town | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Grimsby Town is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.39 goals / match - Grimsby Town · 1.27 goals / match - Fleetwood Town
Grimsby Town is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.11 goals / match - Grimsby Town · 1.22 goals / match - Fleetwood Town
Grimsby Town scores in 78% of matches (28 of 36 matches), while Fleetwood Town keeps a clean sheet in 22% (8 of 37 matches).
Fleetwood Town scores in 81% of matches (30 of 37 matches), while Grimsby Town keeps a clean sheet in 36% (13 of 36 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grimsby Town
Over / Under - Fleetwood Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Grimsby Town is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Grimsby Town · 1.22 pts / match - Fleetwood Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grimsby Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fleetwood Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grimsby Town
Fleetwood Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Grimsby Town | Liga | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.50 | 2.56 | • 2.49 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 47% | 53% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 47% | ▲ 49% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 27% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 68% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 77% | ▼ 68% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Grimsby Town 1 - 0 - 0 Fleetwood Town. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town?
The EFL League Two match finished Grimsby Town 1:0 Fleetwood Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Grimsby Town score 1.39 goals per game on average and Fleetwood Town 1.27. The EFL League Two average is 2.56 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Grimsby Town's matches and 68% of Fleetwood Town's.
What form are Grimsby Town and Fleetwood Town in?
Over the last 5 games Grimsby Town have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Fleetwood Town 1-4-0 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Grimsby Town vs Fleetwood Town: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.