Grobiņa vs Tukums: match statistics
Grobiņa vs Tukums: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Grobiņa played Tukums in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 15 May 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Grobiņa: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match. Tukums: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Grobiņa scores 0.50 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Tukums scores 2.00 and concedes 1.50. League average: 3.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Grobiņa 33%, Tukums 92%. Over 2.5: Grobiņa 17%, Tukums 67%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Tukums has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.00. Grobiņa: 8.1 shots per match, Tukums: 11.3.
Match halves
Grobiņa: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.25. Tukums: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 1.08.
Goals by minute
Grobiņa: 76-90+ (2 goals). Tukums: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 3.00 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Tukums: this season the visitors have scored 24 goals versus just 6 for Grobiņa, and in the last 5 matches Tukums has netted 14 goals compared to only 2 for the hosts. The visitors’ attacking superiority is also evident in shots — averaging 11.4 attempts and 4.2 on target per match with a 12% conversion rate, while Grobiņa records 6.83 shots, 1.33 on target and a 2% conversion. Grobiņa failed to score in 83% of their home matches and average only 0.17 goals at home, whereas Tukums have 0% of away matches without a goal and average 1.4 away goals. Defensively the hosts conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches and average 1.33 goals conceded at home, while Tukums conceded 5 goals in their last five and 1.8 on average away; average xG is 0.83 for Grobiņa versus 1.37 for Tukums, which confirms the visitors’ edge. Considering Grobiņa’s 0.6 points per match in the last 5 fixtures versus Tukums’ 1.6 points, I give the highest probability to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have very high seasonal BTTS rates: Grobiņa 86% and Tukums 100%, which strongly supports the "both teams to score" option. In the last 5 matches, however, Grobiņa has only 40% BTTS and scored 2 goals (0.4 per match) while conceding 10 (2.0 per match), whereas Tukums has 80% BTTS and scored 14 goals in that period (2.8 per match). xG confirms both sides' goal potential — Grobiņa xG 1.44 vs Tukums 1.37, with xG against 1.54 and 1.61 respectively, indicating chance creation at both ends. Additionally, Grobiņa averages 5.29 shots on target per match versus Tukums 4.2, and despite Grobiņa's higher seasonal conversion of 22% (vs 12% Tukums), Tukums has no clean sheets this season (0%) and Grobiņa only 14%, which increases the likelihood of BTTS. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at roughly 80% vs 20% and select BTTS - Yes as the best pick.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG- and goal-statistics-based model projects a total of 2.99 expected goals: Grobiņa 1.53 (calculated as (1.44 + 1.61)/2) and Tukums 1.46 (calculated as (1.37 + 1.54)/2), which already implies at least 2 goals in the match. Additionally, Grobiņa averages 2.43 goals per season with 5.29 shots on target and a 22% conversion rate, while Tukums averages 1.40 goals with 4.2 shots on target and a 12% conversion rate, favoring the hosts to add goals. Seasonal Over/Under metrics confirm this: Over 1.5 occurred in 100% of matches for both teams, Over 2.5 occurred in 71% of Grobiņa’s matches and 60% of Tukums’ (average ≈65%), whereas Over 3.5 is 43% vs 20% (average ≈32%). A counterpoint is Grobiņa’s form in the last 5 matches — averaging 0.4 goals (2 goals in 5 matches) and 2.0 conceded per game — versus Tukums’ good form (2.8 goals in the last 5 and 1.0 conceded), which increases volatility, especially for higher lines. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), with a moderate edge for Over 2.5 (≈65% probability), while Over 3.5 is assessed at ~33% and is treated as a risky addition.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Grobiņa has a clear offensive advantage: on average 2.43 goals per match versus Tukums’s 1.40, and an average home points per match of 1.29 compared to 0.6 for away teams; Tukums has yet to record a win this season (0% wins, 60% draws). In first halves the hosts led in 43% of home matches (3 of 7), scoring on average 1.0 goals and conceding 0.57, while the visitors led at the break in only 20% (1 of 5) and concede 1.2 goals on average. Additionally Grobiņa are strong after the interval — averaging 1.43 goals in the second half and registering 7 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes — which increases the likelihood of maintaining or extending a lead. On that basis the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and Grobiņa winning at full-time (1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Grobiņa | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tukums is 167% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Grobiņa · 1.6 pts / match - Tukums
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tukums is 300% better for: goals scored per match.
0.5 goals / match - Grobiņa · 2 goals / match - Tukums
Grobiņa scores in 50% of matches (6 of 12 matches), while Tukums keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
Tukums scores in 100% of matches (12 of 12 matches), while Grobiņa keeps a clean sheet in 25% (3 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Grobiņa
Over / Under - Tukums
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tukums is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Grobiņa · 1.25 pts / match - Tukums
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Grobiņa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tukums - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Grobiņa
Tukums
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| Grobiņa | Liga | Tukums | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 3.00 | ▲ 3.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 58% | ▲ 92% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 17% | 52% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 22% | ▼ 8% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 75% | ▲ 92% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 85% | ▼ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Grobiņa 2 - 1 - 2 Tukums. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Grobiņa vs Tukums?
The Virsliga match finished Grobiņa 3:3 Tukums. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Grobiņa and Tukums?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Grobiņa won 2, Tukums won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Grobiņa vs Tukums?
Grobiņa score 0.50 goals per game on average and Tukums 2.00. The Virsliga average is 3.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Grobiņa's matches and 92% of Tukums's.
What form are Grobiņa and Tukums in?
Over the last 5 games Grobiņa have a 0-3-2 record (0.60 points per game) and Tukums 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Grobiņa vs Tukums?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Grobiņa vs Tukums: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.