Guabirá vs Aurora: match statistics

Guabirá has significantly better home numbers: they average 2.22 goals with an xG of 1.99, take 18.11 shots per match, and have not failed to score in a single home fixture. However, their current form is poor, as they have not won any of their last five matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 11. Aurora arrive on the back of a five-match unbeaten run, with three wins, two draws, and only 3 goals conceded. The visitors are cautious away from home, though: they draw as many as 50% of such matches, average 1.10 goals, and fail to score in 30% of their outings. Guabirá’s superior chance creation at home should offset Aurora’s better recent form, making a draw the most likely outcome.

Guabirá has landed BTTS - Yes in 78% of its matches this season and in as many as 80% of its last five games, clearly above the league average of 62%. The hosts concede an average of 1.44 goals per match and have conceded 11 goals in their last five fixtures, or 2.2 per game, while Aurora has scored 1.8 goals per match during this period. Aurora has kept a clean sheet in 30% of its matches, but its average xG against is 1.44, while Guabirá creates 1.77 xG at home and registers 6.67 shots on target per match. The risk to BTTS - Yes comes from Guabirá’s reduced recent attacking output, with only 4 goals scored in five matches, as well as Aurora’s solid defensive form, conceding just 0.6 goals per game lately. Nevertheless, the hosts’ defensive weakness and the attacking potential of both teams provide slightly stronger support for the outcome in which each team scores.

Over 1.5 goals stands out strongly in the season data: this line has been exceeded in 89% of Guabirá’s matches and 90% of Aurora’s games. At home, the hosts average 2.11 goals scored, while Aurora score 1.10 goals away from home, with the league average standing at 3.04 goals per match. The attacking potential is supported by xG figures: Guabirá generate an average of 1.77 xG, and Aurora 1.39 xG, while the two defences allow 1.36 and 1.44 xG respectively. Caution around higher lines is justified by the hosts’ recent form, with Guabirá scoring just 4 goals in their last 5 matches, as well as by the fact that Aurora have recorded Under 2.5 goals in 70% of their away games. Therefore, the safest edge is Over 1.5 goals, which should benefit from the high baseline frequency of at least two goals.

Aurora are in significantly better current form: they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded across their last five matches, remaining unbeaten, while Guabirá are on a winless run, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded. The visitors led at the break in 40% of their last five appearances, whereas the hosts have not led at half-time in any of those matches and were trailing in 40% of them. Aurora’s superiority is also evident after the interval: they won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, keeping a clean sheet in all five. Over the same period, Guabirá scored just 0.4 goals after half-time while conceding 1.2, increasing the likelihood that any early Aurora lead will be preserved. The hosts’ season-long attacking figures are stronger, with 2.11 goals and an xG of 1.77, but their recent form clearly shifts the forecast towards an away lead at half-time and an Aurora victory in the HT/FT market.