Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul: match statistics

I predict a home win: Guadalajara shows strong home metrics — wins 63% of home matches, averages 2.16 goals scored per game, concedes only 0.89 goals, keeps a clean sheet in 53% of matches and has a home goal difference of +24. However, hosts have shown poorer recent efficiency — only 5 goals and 1 win in the last five matches, averaging 1.2 points over that span. Guadalajara’s advantage lies in the quality of created chances — home xG of 1.92 versus 1.65 for Cruz Azul, and 6.16 shots on target for the hosts versus 5.5 for the visitors, with possession at 59% against 53%. Cruz Azul are in better recent form (3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5, 11 goals and an average of 2.2 points per game) and rarely leave away matches goalless (only 10% of matches without a goal). Considering Guadalajara’s superiority in home defence and chance creation alongside Cruz Azul’s better scoring form, I assess the probabilities as 50% home win, 30% draw and 20% away win.

I project BTTS (both teams to score) as the most likely outcome at 72% vs 28%. This is driven by strong seasonal BTTS indicators: Guadalajara has 67% of matches with both teams scoring, and Cruz Azul 75%, versus a league level of 59%. Both sides generate chances and have high xG — Guadalajara averages 2.00 goals with xG 2.01, Cruz Azul 1.60 goals with xG 1.65, while their average goals conceded are 1.05 and 1.20 respectively, suggesting significant likelihood of goals from both teams. Additionally, the home side records 6.38 shots on target and 18.76 total shots on average, the visitors 5.5 SOT and 15.1 shots, and low clean sheets (33% vs 20%) further increase the probability of both teams scoring. Although in the last 5 matches Guadalajara shows only 40% BTTS versus 80% for Cruz Azul, the overall seasonal profile and xG comparison (e.g. 2.01 vs 1.25 and 1.65 vs 1.00) indicate both teams are most likely to score.

The model projects approximately 1.63 goals for Guadalajara and 1.33 for Cruz Azul (total 2.96). Valuation is based on xG: Guadalajara has xG 2.01 while Cruz Azul concedes 1.25 xG per match; Cruz Azul has xG 1.65 and Guadalajara concedes 1.00 xG. Both teams show a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: home 81% and away 90%, so for the 1.5 line I give strong support to Over (88% vs 12%). Additionally, BTTS occurs in 67% of home matches and 75% of away matches, reinforcing the scenario of at least two goals. For the 2.5 line signals are moderate — home Over2.5 in 62% of matches, away 45% and the league average 56% — hence Over2.5 = 62%. Since the expected 2.96 goals is below 3.5 and the away side has only 20% of matches over 3.5 goals, I rate Over3.5 weaker at 31%.

I predict a draw at half-time: Guadalajara are level at the break in 52% of matches and Cruz Azul in 40% of their games, which provides a strong signal for a HT draw. However, the home side are clear favourites by full-time — Guadalajara win 67% of home matches and average 2.24 points per home game, while Cruz Azul average 1.7 points on the road. The hosts also have a higher xG (2.01 vs 1.65), score on average 1.1 goals after the break compared to the visitors’ 0.95, and more frequently dominate second halves (48% vs 35%), all of which support a turnaround from a halftime draw to a home win. Despite Cruz Azul’s good form in their last five matches (60% wins), Guadalajara’s seasonal home advantage in goal numbers (on average 2.0 scored and 1.05 conceded vs the visitors’ 1.6 and 1.2) confirms the HT draw and home win FT scenario, so I rate X/1 as the strongest signal (30%).