Gualaceo SC vs 22 de Julio: match statistics

Gualaceo SC are favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and conceded only 2 goals in that run, while 22 de Julio have failed to win any of their last five games and have conceded as many as 18 goals. At home, the hosts concede an average of 0.46 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 69% of games, while the visitors score an average of just 0.46 goals away from home. The difference in the quality of chances created is reflected in xG: Gualaceo average 1.48 at home, compared with just 0.81 for 22 de Julio away. The visitors have lost 77% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.08 goals in those games, which points to a home win. A draw remains possible, as Gualaceo have failed to score in 38% of their home matches.

The strongest indicator that at least one team will fail to score is the low rate of matches in which both teams have scored: 21% for Gualaceo and 23% for 22 de Julio. The hosts failed to score in 64% of their matches, while the visitors did so in 69%, averaging just 0.50 and 0.46 goals scored per match, respectively. A goal from the visitors looks particularly unlikely: their average xG is 0.81, while Gualaceo have conceded just 0.4 goals per match over their last five games. 22 de Julio’s poor defense, conceding an average of 3.6 goals over the same period, boosts the hosts’ chances of scoring, but not enough to make BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome. BTTS - No means that at least one team will fail to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0:0 draw.

Gualaceo have averaged 0.50 goals per match this season, while 22 de Julio have averaged 0.46, so both teams’ attacking potential is limited. However, the hosts could score more than usual: the visitors concede an average of 2.08 goals per match, rising to as many as 3.6 over their last 5 games. That poses a significant risk to a low-scoring outcome, although Gualaceo have scored only 1.0 goal per match across their last 5 games. Under 3.5 goals remains the strongest pick, having landed in 86% of the hosts’ matches and 77% of the visitors’ matches, even though 22 de Julio’s last 5 games all finished with at least 3 goals. An estimated total of 2.5 goals gives Under 3.5 a greater margin of safety than Under 2.5.

The most likely outcome is for Gualaceo SC to lead at the break and hold on to the lead until full-time: 22 de Julio were trailing at half-time in 67% of their matches and have recently conceded an average of two goals before the break. The hosts win more often this season (21% versus 8%) and create more chances, with an xG of 0.97 compared with their opponents’ 0.81. Their advantage is particularly pronounced across the last five matches: they won three, while the visitors failed to win any and conceded an average of 3.6 goals per game. A draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a plausible scenario, as Gualaceo failed to score in the first half in each of their last four matches covered by these statistics. However, the visitors’ weak defence, conceding an average of 2.08 goals per match this season, gives the hosts their best chance of taking the lead before the break and seeing out the win.