Guaraní vs Libertad: match statistics
Guaraní vs Libertad: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Guaraní played Libertad in Division Profesional (Paraguay). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Guaraní: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Libertad: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Guaraní scores 1.43 and concedes 1.14 goals per match. Libertad scores 1.50 and concedes 1.07. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Guaraní 50%, Libertad 36%. Over 2.5: Guaraní 43%, Libertad 36%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
xG, shots and style
Libertad has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.25. Guaraní: 10.9 shots per match, Libertad: 14.8.
Match halves
Guaraní: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.93. Libertad: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.93.
Goals by minute
Guaraní: 76-90+ (9 goals). Libertad: 31-45+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Division Profesional: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 38%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-2. Average goals 3.60, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
A draw appears most likely because both teams’ metrics are very similar: both average 1.57 goals scored per match and concede 1.00 on average. Libertad holds an edge in chances created — average xG 1.51 versus 1.37 for Guaraní and 15.29 shots per match versus 12 — but they have lost 57% of away fixtures and their away win rate is only 29%. Guaraní compensates with higher finishing efficiency (conversion rate 13% versus Libertad’s 10%) and a stronger home record (home win rate 43% and a +4 home goal differential), which partially neutralizes the visitors’ advantage. Over the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 6 goals and average 1.6 pts/match, while Libertad have 7 goals and 1.8 pts/match — both teams failed to score in 43% of their games, increasing the probability of a low-scoring outcome. In summary, comparable xG values, identical goals-per-game (1.57) and offsetting advantages (more shots and possession for the visitors versus superior conversion and better home form for Guaraní) point to a draw as the most reliable prediction.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project No BTTS as more likely (65% vs 35%). Guaraní averages 1.43 goals scored and concedes 1.14 per match, while Libertad posts 1.57 for and 1.00 against, indicating an overall moderate tempo. Season BTTS rates are 43% for Guaraní and 29% for Libertad; additionally Libertad failed to score in 43% of fixtures this season, and the home side has 43% clean sheets, which strongly argues against both teams scoring. Arguments for BTTS are moderate — both teams’ xG are similar at 1.54 vs 1.51 and in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred for each side at 40% — but the league-level clean sheet rate of 57% weakens that signal. Considering Libertad’s high share of goalless matches (43%) and the home side’s defensive solidity (43% clean sheets), I select "No" (65% vs 35%) as the strongest signal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and match averages yields 1.34 goals for Guaraní and 1.32 for Libertad (total 2.66). Home xG is 1.54 versus 1.51 for the away side, and xG against are 1.12 (Guaraní) and 1.14 (Libertad), which supports a ~2.66 goals projection for the match. Under a Poisson distribution this total implies roughly a 75% chance of >1.5 goals, ~50% for >2.5 and ~28% for >3.5, so the strongest signal is at the 1.5 line. Seasonal figures are mixed: Guaraní has 43% of matches over 1.5, Libertad 71%, and for Over2.5 respectively 43% and 29%, which explains lower confidence at the 2.5 line. Considering a combined xG of 2.66 and recent form (last 5: Guaraní averaging 1.2 goals, Libertad 1.4), I recommend Over 1.5 as the best selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In 57% of meetings between these two teams the half-time score is a draw (57% for the home side and 57% for the away side), with an average of 0.57 goals per team by the break, so the most probable HT result is a draw. Offensively both sides are similar (xG 1.54 for Guaraní versus 1.51 for Libertad and shots on target 5.57 vs 5.0), but Guaraní has markedly better season-long outcomes: 57% wins and 1.86 points per game compared to 29% and 1.00 point for Libertad. Additionally, decisive moments often occur after the break — 86% of Guaraní’s matches see a goal in the second half, and Libertad 100% — which increases the likelihood of a turnaround after 45 minutes. Considering the drawn first half (57%) and Guaraní’s clear advantage in full-time results over the season, the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Guaraní | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Libertad is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Guaraní · 1.8 pts / match - Libertad
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Libertad is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.43 goals / match - Guaraní · 1.5 goals / match - Libertad
Libertad is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.14 goals / match - Guaraní · 1.07 goals / match - Libertad
Guaraní scores in 64% of matches (9 of 14 matches), while Libertad keeps a clean sheet in 36% (5 of 14 matches).
Libertad scores in 71% of matches (10 of 14 matches), while Guaraní keeps a clean sheet in 36% (5 of 14 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Guaraní
Over / Under - Libertad
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Libertad is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / match - Guaraní · 1.43 pts / match - Libertad
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Guaraní - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Libertad - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Guaraní
Libertad
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Division Profesional).
Teams vs league
| Guaraní | Liga | Libertad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.57 | 2.41 | ▲ 2.57 |
| Both teams scored | • 50% | 49% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 43% | 38% | ▼ 36% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 29% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | • 57% | 56% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 79% | 81% | ▲ 93% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Guaraní 2 - 1 - 2 Libertad. Average goals 3.60, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Guaraní vs Libertad?
The Division Profesional match finished Guaraní 1:0 Libertad. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Guaraní and Libertad?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Guaraní won 2, Libertad won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Guaraní vs Libertad?
Guaraní score 1.43 goals per game on average and Libertad 1.50. The Division Profesional average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 38% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Guaraní's matches and 36% of Libertad's.
What form are Guaraní and Libertad in?
Over the last 5 games Guaraní have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Libertad 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Guaraní vs Libertad?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.