Guingamp vs Boulogne: match statistics

Both teams come into this match without a win in their last five fixtures, although Boulogne recorded 2 draws during that period, compared with just 1 for Guingamp. The hosts have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last 5 matches, 2 more than Boulogne, which significantly limits their chances of making the most of home advantage. Guingamp’s attack has been marginally more effective, scoring 5 goals compared with their opponents’ 4, but both sides have a negative goal difference: -6 and -5, respectively. Boulogne sit 7th, while Guingamp are 15th; however, with neither side able to secure a win and both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities, this points to a closely contested match with a high probability of the points being shared.

Recent form points to an open game: BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Guingamp’s last five matches and in as many as 80% of Boulogne’s. During this period, Guingamp conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match, while Boulogne conceded 1.8, clearly increasing the chances of both attacks finding the net. Their attacking potential is also comparable, with average xG from the last five matches standing at 0.90 for the hosts and 1.08 for the visitors, while xG conceded was 1.29 and 1.28 respectively. Although Boulogne scored only 0.8 goals per match, Guingamp’s weak defence and the visitors’ very high 80% BTTS rate slightly favour the scenario in which both teams score.

In their last five matches, Guingamp averaged 1.0 goals, while Boulogne averaged 0.8, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. At the same time, both sides’ average xG figures are similar and moderate: 0.90 for the home team and 1.08 for the visitors, while their opponents generated 1.28 and 1.29 xG against them, respectively. Both teams have conceded a high number of goals recently—2.2 and 1.8 per match—but these figures are higher than the quality of the chances they allowed, so another four-goal game should not be assumed outright. At least three goals were scored in 60% of each team’s last five matches, but the projected total of 2.29 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5. The Under 3.5 line covers the most likely scenarios: 0:1, 1:1, 2:1 and 1:2.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Boulogne win after 90 minutes, as the visitors were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and never went into half-time with the lead. Guingamp have slightly better attacking output before the break, averaging 0.6 goals compared with Boulogne’s 0.2, but they also concede 0.8 goals per match during this period. The second half is crucial: the hosts have scored only 0.4 goals and conceded as many as 1.4, losing the second-half segment in all of their last five matches. After the break, Boulogne have averaged 1.2 points per match, scored 0.6 goals, and kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games, increasing the likelihood of turning a closely contested match in their favour.