Guingamp vs Red Star: match statistics

Guingamp have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 2.00 goals from 14 shots and 5.67 shots on target per match, while Red Star average 1.33 goals, 12 shots and 4.33 shots on target away from home. The hosts remain unbeaten on home soil, winning 67% of their matches, with a conversion rate of 14% compared to 11% for the visitors. However, Red Star defend very solidly away from home, conceding just 0.67 goals per match, which significantly increases the likelihood of a closely contested game. On the other hand, Red Star’s away xG conceded stands at as high as 1.61, exceeding the 1.43 xG created by Guingamp at home, indicating that the visitors allow opponents to create high-quality chances. Both teams have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, but home advantage and greater attacking output give Guingamp a slight edge.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, which is higher than the league average of 54%. During this period, Guingamp averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Red Star scored 1.0 goals per game and conceded 1.2. The hosts create plenty of chances, with an average xG of 1.89 for the season and 1.57 across their last five matches, while Red Star allow opponents an xG of 1.61. Red Star have not finished a single match this season without scoring, and their current xG of 1.65 is above their seasonal average of 1.33, so they should have a realistic chance of finding the net despite Guingamp keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches. The signal for both teams to score is moderate, but current attacking form and recent results clearly support the BTTS - Yes option.

The season profiles of both teams point towards a limited number of goals: both Guingamp and Red Star finished below 2.5 goals in 67% of their matches, while Red Star never exceeded the 3.5-goal line. Guingamp average just 0.67 goals at home, despite creating chances worth 1.89 xG, which indicates clearly poor finishing at a rate of 4%. Red Star concede only 0.67 goals per away match, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 67% of their home games. The last five matches provide a slightly more open signal, with Guingamp recording 60% of games above 2.5 goals; however, the projected average of 2.35 goals still leaves a solid margin for a maximum three-goal outcome. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest option, as the data for both teams consistently limits the risk of four or more goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Guingamp win, as the hosts were level at the break in 2 of their 3 home matches, while Red Star recorded the same outcome in 1 of their 3 away games. The visitors’ first-half advantage cannot be ignored: they averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded none before the break, whereas Guingamp averaged 0.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. After half-time, the picture becomes more balanced, while in their last five matches Guingamp averaged 1.0 second-half goals, compared with just 0.2 for Red Star. The hosts also create more chances, with an xG of 1.89 versus 1.33 for their opponents and an average of 6.0 shots on target compared with 4.33, although their 4% conversion rate suggests that a cautious start should be expected. Red Star have the better season record, averaging 2.33 points per match with a 67% win rate, but both teams’ recent form is identical at 1.6 points per match, reinforcing the scenario of a closely contested first half followed by the hosts turning the match in their favour.