Haka vs MP: match statistics

Haka sit 3rd, having won 12 of 21 matches this season. They have also recorded 4 wins in their last five games, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 4. MP are showing a clearly weaker trend: they have lost 4 of their last five matches, scoring 5 goals and conceding 11. At home, Haka average 2.36 goals per game with 1.68 xG and win 64% of their matches, while MP score just 0.91 goals per away game and lose as many as 73% of their away fixtures. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 13.27 shots and 5.36 shots on target, compared with MP’s 10.73 shots and 4.09 on target. The visitors’ low scoring efficiency will also be important, as they fail to score in 36% of away matches. Therefore, Haka’s advantage should translate into a win.

BTTS occurred in 50% of Haka’s matches over the entire season and in just 45% of MP’s games, placing both teams close to, but not above, the league average of 44%. MP scores only 0.91 goals per match on average and fails to score in 36% of its appearances, making their goal the main risk to a Goal/Goal scenario. Haka are in very good offensive form, scoring 2.4 goals per match in their last 5 games, while conceding just 0.8 and keeping a clean sheet in 20% of the entire season. The visitors have conceded as many as 11 goals in their last five matches, so Haka have strong grounds to score. However, MP’s poor finishing and the hosts’ improved defensive performance support the BTTS - No scenario, meaning that at least one team fails to score. The BTTS - No pick is therefore marginally stronger, with a realistic possibility of Haka winning to nil.

Haka are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.4 goals across their last five matches, while MP conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game over the same period. In these five appearances, the hosts recorded an average xG of 1.77, whereas MP allowed opponents 1.50 xG, which supports the expectation of at least two Haka goals. The 1.5-goal line was exceeded in 70% of Haka’s matches and 55% of MP’s matches this season, while neither team has finished a game without at least one goal scored in total. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Haka’s last five matches and 60% of MP’s, making Over 1.5 the safest selection with a projected total of 3.17 goals.

Haka are in clearly better recent form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding just 0.8, while MP have lost 4 of their last 5 games, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded. The first-half indicators are particularly strong: Haka held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five matches, whereas MP were behind at half-time in 80% of their games, conceding an average of 2.2 goals before the interval. Across the season as a whole, the hosts have also taken the lead at half-time more often—60% compared with just 9% for the visitors—and their first-half points return stands at 1.8 points per match, compared with MP’s 0.91. Haka’s advantage should persist after the interval, as MP have lost 73% of their league matches, while Haka have won 40% and have a significantly higher average points return: 1.4 versus 0.64. The scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and go on to win is therefore the strongest HT/FT selection, supported by both their current form and the distribution of first-half results.