Hamburger SV vs Freiburg: match statistics
Hamburger SV vs Freiburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hamburger SV played Freiburg in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Hamburger SV: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Freiburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hamburger SV scores 1.13 and concedes 1.59 goals per match. Freiburg scores 1.41 and concedes 1.66. League average: 3.21 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hamburger SV 63%, Freiburg 59%. Over 2.5: Hamburger SV 56%, Freiburg 63%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Freiburg has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.33. Hamburger SV: 12.0 shots per match, Freiburg: 12.5.
Match halves
Hamburger SV: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.63. Freiburg: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.88.
Goals by minute
Hamburger SV: 31-45+ (10 goals). Freiburg: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.21 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hamburger SV holds the advantage in key home metrics: at home they score 1.38 goals on average with an xG of 1.45, while Freiburg on the road average 1.00 goal with xG 1.17. Visitors concede 2.00 goals per away match on average, while HSV concedes 1.25 at home; average xG against is 1.68 for Freiburg versus 1.48 for Hamburg, indicating a higher risk of conceding on the visitors' side. Additionally, Hamburg generate more shots in home matches (13.25 average shots and 4.69 on target) than Freiburg away (10.63 and 3.31), and the visitors fail to score in 50% of away games compared to 25% for the hosts. Both teams are in poor form — over the last 5 matches each averages 0.8 points with a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, which reduces predictability. Based on the xG advantage, shot volume and lower share of goalless games I assign roughly a 60% chance to HSV to win, 25% for a draw and 15% for a Freiburg win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis indicates a BTTS-favorable scenario: Hamburger SV has 81% of matches with both teams scoring at home, compared to the league average of 62%. Counter signals come from Freiburg away — only 38% BTTS and 50% of matches with no goals scored, which lowers the visitors’ chance to score. However, in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of cases, and the average goals conceded are 2.2 for Hamburg and 2.0 for Freiburg, indicating defensive vulnerability. Hamburg creates more chances (5.13 shots on target and 14.44 shots overall on average) and has xG 1.6 versus Freiburg’s conceded xG 1.68, while Freiburg has xG 1.17 against Hamburg’s defensive xG 1.33 — meaning the hosts have a higher probability to score, and Freiburg has enough quality to score at least once. Based on this I assign a 65% probability to BTTS (Yes) and 35% to No and recommend the Yes selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I estimate HSV should have about 1.64 xG (HSV attack xG 1.6 and xG against Freiburg 1.68 averaging 1.64), and Freiburg about 1.25 xG (Freiburg attack xG 1.17 and xG against HSV 1.33 giving 1.25), totaling 2.89 expected goals. This season HSV records Over 1.5 in 88% of matches, Freiburg in 75%, and the expected 2.89 goals suggests a high probability of Over 1.5 around 80%. Over 2.5 has additional support: season Over 2.5 is 69% for HSV and 56% for Freiburg, and in the last 5 matches both teams produced Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, so I project Over 2.5 at roughly 66%. Over 3.5 is less likely — season rates 38%/31% (HSV/Freiburg), and the xG model gives about a 33% chance of more than 3.5 goals, so I prefer Under 3.5 (66%). Additionally HSV generates more chances (on average 5.13 shots on target and 14.44 total shots with a conversion rate of 13%, while Freiburg has 3.31 shots on target and 10.63 total shots with a 9% conversion), which reinforces Over 1.5 as the best bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hamburger SV has a clear offensive edge: xG 1.60 versus Freiburg’s 1.17, an average of 14.44 shots (5.13 on target) versus 10.63 (3.31) and a conversion rate of 13% versus 9%, translating to 1.81 goals per home match compared to 1.00 for the visitors. A draw at halftime is realistic — the home side led at the break in 6 matches (38%) and were level at halftime in 6 (38%), while the visitors were level at halftime in 10 matches (63%); average first‑half goals are 0.75 for Hamburg and 0.31 for Freiburg. After the break the indicators favor Hamburg: the hosts score an average of 1.06 goals in the second half, and Freiburg concedes an average of 1.44 goals after halftime; the visitors conceded 13 goals in minutes 46–60 and 8 goals in 76–90, whereas Hamburger scored 5 and 8 goals in those intervals respectively. Considering a 50% home win rate versus a 25% away win rate and Freiburg’s susceptibility to conceding after the break, the most likely scenario is a draw at 45 minutes and a Hamburg turnaround to win by full time (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hamburger SV | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Freiburg is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Hamburger SV · 1.4 pts / match - Freiburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Freiburg is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1.13 goals / match - Hamburger SV · 1.41 goals / match - Freiburg
Hamburger SV scores in 69% of matches (22 of 32 matches), while Freiburg keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 matches).
Freiburg scores in 72% of matches (23 of 32 matches), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hamburger SV
Over / Under - Freiburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Freiburg is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Hamburger SV · 1.25 pts / match - Freiburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hamburger SV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Freiburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hamburger SV
Freiburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Hamburger SV | Liga | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.72 | 3.21 | ▼ 3.06 |
| Both teams scored | • 63% | 62% | ▼ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 56% | 63% | • 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 21% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 72% | 77% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 85% | • 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hamburger SV 0 - 0 - 1 Freiburg. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hamburger SV vs Freiburg?
The Bundesliga match finished Hamburger SV 3:2 Freiburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hamburger SV vs Freiburg?
Hamburger SV score 1.13 goals per game on average and Freiburg 1.41. The Bundesliga average is 3.21 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Hamburger SV's matches and 59% of Freiburg's.
What form are Hamburger SV and Freiburg in?
Over the last 5 games Hamburger SV have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Freiburg 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hamburger SV vs Freiburg?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.