HamKam vs Kristiansund: match statistics

HamKam are significantly more effective at home, averaging 1.75 goals per match, while Kristiansund score just 0.56 goals away from home. The hosts have won 63% of their home fixtures and have failed to score in none of them, whereas the visitors have lost as many as 78% of their away matches and failed to find the net in 56% of them. HamKam’s advantage is also evident in their finishing quality: from 11 shots per match, they register 4.88 on target and convert 16% of their attempts, while Kristiansund, despite averaging 12.56 shots, manage just 3.22 shots on target and have a conversion rate of 4%. The last five matches produced 9 goals for each team, but HamKam have tightened up defensively, conceding 5 goals during this period compared with Kristiansund’s 6. The visitors have a similar average xG of 1.32 versus HamKam’s 1.34, but their extremely poor finishing and away record point to a greater likelihood of a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Kristiansund’s poor away scoring record: the team averages just 0.56 goals and fails to score in 56% of matches. HamKam has kept a clean sheet in 25% of its games, while Kristiansund has recorded none, clearly increasing the hosts’ chances of scoring but not guaranteeing an away goal. The season BTTS figures stand at 63% for HamKam and only 44% for Kristiansund, while both teams scored in just 20% of HamKam’s last five matches. Although Kristiansund averaged 1.8 goals across its last five games, its low away-scoring average and frequent No Goal outcomes slightly support a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

HamKam went over the 1.5-goal line in 88% of their league matches, while Kristiansund did so in 78%, strongly supporting the prospect of at least two goals. Both teams are also in better attacking form: over their last five matches, each has averaged 1.8 goals scored. The goal potential is further supported by the underlying data, with the hosts averaging 1.27 xG against 1.75 xG conceded by the visitors, while Kristiansund produces an average of 1.32 xG against a HamKam defence allowing 1.77 xG. The 2.5 line is more evenly balanced, although Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of HamKam’s and 80% of Kristiansund’s last five matches. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5, as only 12% of the hosts’ matches and 22% of the visitors’ matches ended with one goal or fewer.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a HamKam win, as the hosts were level at the break in 63% of their matches, while Kristiansund were trailing at half-time in 67% of their away games. HamKam average 1.25 goals at home and earn 1.38 points per match, whereas Kristiansund score only 0.56 goals away and collect just 0.44 points. The visitors concede an average of 1.78 goals on the road and have kept no clean sheets, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of completing the turnaround after the break. The second half is more favourable for HamKam, who average 0.88 goals after half-time compared with Kristiansund’s 0.44, while second-half goals were scored in 88% of the hosts’ matches. Although both teams have averaged 1.8 goals per game over their last five matches, Kristiansund’s poor away conversion rate of 4% supports HamKam’s advantage in the final outcome.