Hamrun Spartans vs Hibernians: match statistics

Hamrun Spartans have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals, while Hibernians have failed to win, scoring just 2 and conceding 9. At home, the hosts average 1.67 goals with an xG of 1.60, while the visitors average 1.00 goal and an xG of 1.17 away from home, pointing to Hamrun’s edge in the quality of chances created. This is also reflected in the hosts’ average of 5 shots on target compared with 4.33 for the visitors, and a shot conversion rate of 15% versus 11%. Hibernians concede only 0.67 goals per away match, so a closely contested game cannot be ruled out, although they allow chances worth an average xG of 1.52. Better recent form and greater attacking strength make Hamrun Spartans the pick to win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Hibernians’ poor scoring record: they have averaged 0.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while Hamrun Spartans have conceded an average of 0.8. Hibernians have averaged 1.0 goals in away matches, but the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their home games. Hamrun are more likely to score, having averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 outings, while Hibernians have conceded 1.8 per game over that span. Despite the hosts’ attacking edge, both teams scored in only 33% of their respective home and away matches, making it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all Hibernians matches in the analyzed sample finished below this line, as did 67% of Hamrun Spartans' matches. Across their last 5 games, the average total was 2.6 goals in Hamrun matches and 2.2 in Hibernians matches, which also points away from a high-scoring game. Hamrun have recently scored 1.8 goals per match, while Hibernians have managed just 0.4; their attacking xG over this period was 1.36 and 1.10, respectively. Hibernians' weaker defense, conceding 1.8 goals per match recently, boosts the hosts' chances of scoring, but not enough to outweigh the stronger signal in favor of Under 3.5 goals.

Hamrun have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals, while Hibernians have failed to win any and averaged 0.4 goals. The hosts were not trailing at half-time in any of those 5 matches, whereas the visitors went into the break behind in 3 of 5, supporting the prospect of Hamrun taking the lead at the break. The hosts’ advantage was even more pronounced after half-time: they scored an average of 1.0 goals, while Hibernians failed to score after the break in any of their last 5 appearances. Caution is warranted, however, as season-long statistics show Hibernians leading at half-time in 2 of 3 matches, while Hamrun were also trailing at that stage in 2 of 3. Despite this discrepancy, the teams’ current form makes a home lead at half-time that is maintained through to the final whistle the most likely single scenario.