Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: match statistics

Maccabi Tel Aviv lead the league and have won both of their matches so far, scoring 8 goals in the process, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva have a record of 1 win, 1 draw and 4 goals scored after three games. The visitors are particularly dangerous away from home: they average 5 goals per match, register 8 shots on target and convert close to 29% of their attempts, compared with the hosts’ 2 goals, 6 shots on target and 13% conversion rate. Hapoel have the edge in controlling play at home, averaging 66% possession and an xG of 2.04, so they should not be without a chance of scoring. However, neither team’s defence provides complete security, as both concede an average of 2 goals at their respective analysed venue and neither has kept a clean sheet. Maccabi’s chances of winning are supported by greater current stability, 10 goals scored in their last five matches and superior finishing quality.

Both teams currently have a 100% BTTS rate, while the league average stands at 62%, clearly strengthening the case for goals at both ends. Hapoel Be'er Sheva score an average of 3.0 goals per match and concede 1.0, while Maccabi Tel Aviv score 5.0 and allow opponents 2.0 goals. In their last five matches, the hosts conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game, compared with 1.4 for the visitors, while their respective scoring averages were 1.6 and 2.0. Their attacking potential is supported by the xG figures: 1.72 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors over the last five matches, with the hosts allowing opponents 1.85 xG. Neither side has kept a clean sheet yet, so it is more likely that both teams will find the back of the net — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

The match profile clearly favors goals: in their last 5 matches, Hapoel Be'er Sheva averaged 1.6 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.6, while Maccabi Tel Aviv scored 2.0 goals per game. The hosts allowed opponents an xG of 1.85, while Maccabi generated an average of 1.62 xG, supporting a forecast of close to 1.90 goals for the visitors. Hapoel, in turn, created 1.72 xG in their last five matches, compared with 1.39 xG conceded on average by Maccabi, meaning the hosts also have solid grounds to score. Both teams found the net in 80% of their last five matches, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of Hapoel's games and 60% of Maccabi's. However, the strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.45 goals provides a substantial margin of safety even if finishing efficiency is lower than indicated by the recent results.

The strongest signal points to Maccabi Tel Aviv winning both halves: in their last five matches, the visitors led at the break in 60% of games, while Hapoel were level at half-time in as many as 60%. Maccabi also have the better first-half record, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding 0.4, compared with Hapoel’s 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Across their last five overall appearances, the visitors averaged 2.0 goals per match versus 1.6 for the hosts, while their defence allowed 1.4 goals compared with Hapoel’s 2.6. Maccabi’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, with average xG of 1.96 compared with the hosts’ 1.65, while the average number of shots on target stands at 8 to 7. However, the hosts remain dangerous after the break, which is why the draw at half-time and away win scenario, X/2, carries a significant 17% probability, although the highest-rated option is 2/2.