Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans: match statistics
Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Harju Jalgpallikool played Trans in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 10 July 2026. Venue: Laagri kunstmuru. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Harju Jalgpallikool: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Trans: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Harju Jalgpallikool scores 1.22 and concedes 1.78 goals per match. Trans scores 0.67 and concedes 2.39. League average: 3.04 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Harju Jalgpallikool 50%, Trans 39%. Over 2.5: Harju Jalgpallikool 67%, Trans 72%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 65%.
xG, shots and style
Trans has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.48. Harju Jalgpallikool: 12.1 shots per match, Trans: 13.1.
Match halves
Harju Jalgpallikool: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.67. Trans: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Harju Jalgpallikool: 76-90+ (7 goals). Trans: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.04 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 65%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 4-0-2. Average goals 3.33, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Harju Jalgpallikool holds a clear statistical edge at home: they average 1.44 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 33% of home games, while Trans score only 0.22 goals on average away and manage clean sheets in just 11% of away matches. The visitors’ defense is highly vulnerable — Trans concede 3.00 goals per away game and lose 89% of their away fixtures, whereas Harju concede 1.67 goals per home match. In attack the hosts also look superior in terms of chance quality: Harju’s average xG is 1.58 versus Trans’s 1.35, hosts register 4.44 shots on target on average with an 11% conversion rate compared to 3.22 shots on target and a 2% conversion for the visitors. Recent form is poor for both sides (Harju 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5, averaging 0.6 points per game; Trans 1-1-3, averaging 0.8 points per game), but the decisive factor is Trans’s away frailty — no away wins (win percentage 0%) and 78% of away matches without scoring. Given the higher conversion rate, superior shots on target and relatively more stable home defense against Trans’s disastrous away numbers, I forecast a Harju victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assign a 60% probability to No BTTS and 40% to BTTS = Yes based on seasonal and recent form analysis. Trans as visitors average 0.22 goals per game season-to-date and have a season BTTS rate of only 22%, with 11.11 shots, 3.22 shots on target and a conversion rate of 2%, which severely limits their scoring potential. Harju generates more chances (xG 1.72, 15.0 shots and 4.11 shots on target) and has a seasonal goals average of 1.11 with a 7% conversion, but concedes 1.78 goals per game and only has 22% clean sheets, so a home goal is likely. The key discrepancy is visitors’ xG 1.35 versus actual 0.22 — Trans create chances but their 2% conversion means they most often finish matches without a goal; additionally they concede on average 3.0 goals per game, which often produces one-sided results. In the last 5 games Trans have improved to 2.4 goals per game with 40% BTTS, representing a short-term rebound, but seasonal effectiveness metrics for the visitors remain the dominant signal. Considering 56% BTTS at home and 22% for the visitors plus Trans’s low conversion, the No BTTS scenario is stronger (60% vs 40%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The combined xG is 1.72 for Harju and 1.35 for Trans, yielding an expected total of 3.07 goals. With lambda=3.07 the Poisson distribution gives probability of >=2 goals (Over 1.5) at ~81%, >=3 goals (Over 2.5) at ~59% and >=4 goals (Over 3.5) at ~37%. Seasonal data support this projection: the home side have Over 1.5 in 89% and Over 2.5 in 89% of matches, the visitors have 67% and 56% respectively, and in the last 5 matches the home team recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of cases. Additionally, the home team averages 15 shots and 4.11 on target with a conversion rate of 7%, while the away team averages 11.11 shots and 3.22 on target with a 2% conversion, which correlates with the higher home xG and strengthens the signal for Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I expect a half-time draw and a Harju Jalgpallikool victory after 90 minutes (X/1). Both teams finish the first half level in 33% of their matches, with the home side scoring an average of 0.44 goals by the break versus 0.22 for the visitors. After the interval Harju’s advantage is clear: the hosts have gained 14 second-half points and average 1.56 points per match in the second half compared with just 1 point and 0.11 for Trans, favoring a turnaround after the break. Additionally, Harju averages 1.11 goals per match with an xG of 1.72 versus Trans’s 0.22 goals and xG 1.35; Trans concedes on average 3.0 goals per match and has a 0% win rate this season, so the match finish should favor the hosts. In minutes 76–90 the hosts have scored 4 goals while the visitors have conceded 10 in that interval, therefore the X/1 scenario appears to be the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Harju Jalgpallikool | Trans | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 28% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Harju Jalgpallikool is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 0.2 pts / match - Trans
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Harju Jalgpallikool is 82% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 0.67 goals / match - Trans
Harju Jalgpallikool is 34% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.78 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 2.39 goals / match - Trans
Harju Jalgpallikool scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Trans keeps a clean sheet in 17% (3 of 18 matches).
Trans scores in 50% of matches (9 of 18 matches), while Harju Jalgpallikool keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Harju Jalgpallikool
Over / Under - Trans
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Harju Jalgpallikool is 66% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.11 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 0.67 pts / match - Trans
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Harju Jalgpallikool - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Trans - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Harju Jalgpallikool
Trans
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Harju Jalgpallikool | Liga | Trans | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.00 | 3.04 | • 3.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 65% | ▲ 72% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 23% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 74% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 83% | 88% | ▲ 94% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Harju Jalgpallikool 4 - 0 - 2 Trans. Average goals 3.33, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans?
The Meistriliiga match finished Harju Jalgpallikool 3:0 Trans. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Harju Jalgpallikool and Trans?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Harju Jalgpallikool won 4, Trans won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans?
Harju Jalgpallikool score 1.22 goals per game on average and Trans 0.67. The Meistriliiga average is 3.04 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 65% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Harju Jalgpallikool's matches and 39% of Trans's.
What form are Harju Jalgpallikool and Trans in?
Over the last 5 games Harju Jalgpallikool have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Trans 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.