Hearts vs Dundee: match statistics

Hearts are clearly stronger at home: they have won both of their home games so far, scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding just 0.5 per match. The hosts also create more danger, averaging 7 shots on target compared with Dundee’s 3.5, while their xG stands at 1.66, with Dundee allowing a very high away xG of 2.24. Dundee score just 1 goal per away game, failed to score in 50% of their away fixtures, and convert only 8% of their shots, compared with Hearts’ 21% conversion rate. Overall form also favors the hosts, who are unbeaten in their last five matches with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws, while Dundee have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors can keep a clean sheet in half of their away matches, but Hearts’ advantage in chance quality and attacking consistency makes them the favorites.

Hearts are in clearly attacking form: they have scored an average of 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches and recorded BTTS in 100% of those fixtures, while conceding 1.6 goals per game. Dundee average just 1.0 goal scored, and BTTS in their matches has stood at 0% across the entire season, but the visitors’ xG of 1.34 over their last five appearances points to a realistic chance of scoring at least once. The hosts allow opponents a high average xG of 1.85 over the season and 1.74 in their last five matches, strengthening the case for a Dundee goal. On the other hand, both teams kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Dundee recorded BTTS in just 20% of their last five fixtures, so the edge toward a both-teams-to-score scenario is narrow. Nevertheless, BTTS - Yes remains the most likely outcome, as Hearts’ excellent finishing should ensure they score, while their vulnerable defence gives Dundee the conditions to respond.

Hearts are in very good scoring form, averaging 2.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Dundee conceded 1.2 goals per game over the same period. The hosts create an average xG of 1.58, whereas Dundee’s defence allows opponents as much as 2.24 xG, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. Dundee also have the potential to add a goal, as Hearts allow an average of 1.85 xG, despite conceding just 1.0 goals per game on average. The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 100% of Hearts’ matches and 50% of Dundee’s, while the projected total of 2.80 goals gives it the strongest edge. At the same time, both teams have recorded Under 3.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far, meaning more aggressive Over lines are not as reliable as Over 1.5.

Hearts have the clearer attacking potential: they average 1.5 goals, generate an xG of 1.58 and register 5 shots on target per match, compared with Dundee’s 1.0 goal, 1.29 xG and 3.5 shots on target. The hosts have been leading at the break in 50% of their home matches so far, while Dundee have yet to lose the first half away from home, which limits confidence in an early Hearts advantage. The second half is the key factor, however: Hearts average 1.0 goal after the break and as many as 2.0 goals across their last five matches, with at least two second-half goals scored in 80% of those games. Dundee have lost 60% of their last five matches, whereas Hearts remain unbeaten and average 1.8 points per game. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 1/1 scenario, with Hearts taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle, although an X/1 result, with the teams level at the break and the hosts winning the match, is a highly realistic alternative.