Hearts vs Rangers: match statistics
Hearts vs Rangers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hearts played Rangers in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 4 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Hearts: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Rangers: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hearts scores 1.76 and concedes 0.85 goals per match. Rangers scores 2.00 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hearts 44%, Rangers 62%. Over 2.5: Hearts 50%, Rangers 56%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Rangers has higher xG: 1.90 vs 1.67. Hearts: 14.6 shots per match, Rangers: 16.8.
Match halves
Hearts: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.06. Rangers: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.21.
Goals by minute
Hearts: 76-90+ (16 goals). Rangers: 76-90+ (19 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.74 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-1. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a home win (1) because Hearts are particularly strong at home: they win 76% of home matches, have not suffered a home defeat (0% losses) and concede only 0.59 goals per game on their own turf. Rangers, however, are in strong attacking form — 17 goals in their last 5 matches and an average of 6.31 shots on target away, with 1.88 goals per away game. Hearts can also deliver offensively at home (1.88 goals scored per game and 5.41 shots on target), and their clean sheet rate is 59% versus 38% for Rangers, giving the hosts a defensive edge. xG is similar: 1.73 xG for Hearts at home compared to 1.79 xG for Rangers away, which implies that differences may come down to finishing efficiency. Considering Hearts’ unbeaten home record and the fact they have no home matches without scoring (0% matches without a goal), I assign a higher probability to the hosts, while acknowledging a draw is possible given the visitors’ attacking form.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Hearts 61% and Rangers 63%, while the league average is 50%. In the last 5 matches the BTTS signal is even stronger — Rangers have 80% BTTS vs Hearts 60%, and Rangers scored 17 goals in those 5 matches (avg 3.4) vs Hearts 8 goals (avg 1.6). Offensive-defensive metrics confirm mutual potential: Hearts score 2.11 goals per game with xG 1.99 vs xG conceded to Rangers 1.39, and Rangers have xG 1.79 vs xG conceded to Hearts 1.05, indicating scoring opportunities for both sides. Additionally both teams have comparable shots on target (6.28 vs 6.31) and identical conversion rate 12%, and season clean sheets are 33% (Hearts) and 38% (Rangers), so a complete shutout of one side is unlikely. Based on this I rate BTTS as more probable and assign 78% for 'Yes' vs 22% for 'No', driven by the combined high season 61–63% BTTS, recent form 80% for Rangers and concrete xG and shot data supporting goals for both teams.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams display strong offensive metrics: Hearts average 2.11 goals with xG 1.99, while Rangers average 1.88 goals with xG 1.79; opponents concede xG of 1.05 (home) and 1.39 (away), yielding expected goals of 1.69 for Hearts and 1.42 for Rangers (total 3.11). Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 78% (Hearts) and 81% (Rangers), and both teams scored in 61% and 63% of games respectively, supporting a both-teams-to-score scenario. A Poisson model with lambda=3.11 estimates ~82% chance of Over 1.5, ~60% for Over 2.5 and ~38% for Over 3.5, consistent with seasonal over-2.5 rates (61%/50%) and over-3.5 (44%/25%). Based on this, the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at the 1.5 line), while Over 2.5 remains a moderately attractive alternative (~60%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 2/2 scenario: Rangers leading at half-time and winning at full-time. In the last five matches they led at the break in 60% of games (3/5) and average 1.0 first-half goals over that period. The visitors have won 80% of their last five matches (4/5) and score an average of 3.4 goals per game in that span, while Hearts averaged 1.6 goals per game in the same period, giving Rangers a short-term advantage. Seasonally Hearts are strong at home (average 2.11 home goals and a 61% win rate), but in their last five matches they have not led at half-time (0% HT leads and only 0.2 first-half goals on average), so their chances of holding a lead after 45 minutes are diminished. xG differences are small (home xG 1.99 vs away xG 1.79), but the combination of a 60% HT lead rate and an 80% win rate in the last five matches provides the strongest signal for the 2/2 scenario, so I recommend it.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hearts | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rangers is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Hearts · 2.4 pts / match - Rangers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rangers is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.76 goals / match - Hearts · 2 goals / match - Rangers
Hearts is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.85 goals / match - Hearts · 1 goals / match - Rangers
Hearts scores in 88% of matches (30 of 34 matches), while Rangers keeps a clean sheet in 35% (12 of 34 matches).
Rangers scores in 88% of matches (30 of 34 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 47% (16 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hearts
Over / Under - Rangers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rangers is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.53 pts / match - Hearts · 1.79 pts / match - Rangers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 65%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Rangers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 3.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +11 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (19 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +12 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hearts
Rangers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hearts | Liga | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.62 | 2.74 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 51% | ▲ 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 52% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 28% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Hearts 2 - 0 - 1 Rangers. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hearts vs Rangers?
The Premiership match finished Hearts 2:1 Rangers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hearts and Rangers?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hearts won 2, Rangers won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hearts vs Rangers?
Hearts score 1.76 goals per game on average and Rangers 2.00. The Premiership average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Hearts's matches and 62% of Rangers's.
What form are Hearts and Rangers in?
Over the last 5 games Hearts have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Rangers 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hearts vs Rangers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Hearts vs Rangers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.