Hearts vs St. Mirren: match statistics
Hearts vs St. Mirren: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hearts played St. Mirren in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Tynecastle Park. Final score: 5:0.
Current form
Hearts: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. St. Mirren: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hearts scores 2.00 and concedes 1.14 goals per match. St. Mirren scores 1.14 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hearts 86%, St. Mirren 29%. Over 2.5: Hearts 86%, St. Mirren 43%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Hearts has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.47. Hearts: 15.6 shots per match, St. Mirren: 14.3.
Match halves
Hearts: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 0.86. St. Mirren: half-time lead 57%, second-half goals 0.29.
Goals by minute
Hearts: 0-15 (4 goals). St. Mirren: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hearts have won all 3 of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 2.67 goals, while St. Mirren average 1 goal away from home. The hosts also create significantly more chances: their home xG stands at 2.03, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.24, while shots on target average 7 and 3.33 per match, respectively. In their last 5 matches, Hearts recorded 3 wins and scored 10 goals, whereas St. Mirren won just once and conceded 9. However, the visitors have been capable defensively away from home, conceding an average of 0.33 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of matches, which tempers confidence in the pick. Despite this, Hearts’ advantage in the number and quality of chances, along with their home form in front of goal, points to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Hearts featured in matches with both teams scoring in 80% of their last five games, compared with 40% for St. Mirren. The hosts averaged 2 goals scored during this period, while the visitors conceded 1.8, which supports the prospect of Hearts finding the net despite St. Mirren keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their away matches. The visitors’ chances of scoring are supported by their average away xG of 1.24 and the fact that Hearts conceded an average of 2 goals at home. However, caution is warranted: St. Mirren have yet to record an away match in which both teams scored, so the edge on BTTS - Yes remains slight.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has held in 75% of Hearts’ home matches and 100% of St. Mirren’s away matches. The visitors concede an average of just 0.33 goals away from home, limiting the hosts’ scoring potential despite their average xG of 1.64. On the other hand, Hearts concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, while St. Mirren score 1.0 goal away, so a very low-scoring result is not guaranteed. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% and 60% of the teams’ respective last five matches, but the projected total of 2.55 goals still gives Under 3.5 a stronger edge than the lower lines.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest HT/FT pick is a draw at half-time followed by a Hearts win, although this scenario has only a slight edge over the alternatives. St. Mirren led at the break in 3 of its last 5 matches, but averaged only 0.67 goals in the first half across the season, so its strong starts do not necessarily translate into a half-time lead. Hearts won 3 of its last 5 matches and scored an average of 2 goals in those games, while St. Mirren won only once and conceded an average of 1.8 goals. The difference is even clearer after the break: in their last 5 matches, Hearts averaged 1 goal in the second half, while St. Mirren scored none during that period and conceded an average of 0.8. This supports a scenario in which the first half is closely contested before the home side turns the result in its favour.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hearts | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Hearts · 0.8 pts / match - St. Mirren
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 75% better for: goals scored per match.
2 goals / match - Hearts · 1.14 goals / match - St. Mirren
Hearts is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.14 goals / match - Hearts · 1.29 goals / match - St. Mirren
Hearts scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while St. Mirren keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
St. Mirren scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hearts
Over / Under - St. Mirren
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
St. Mirren is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.86 pts / match - Hearts · 2 pts / match - St. Mirren
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
St. Mirren - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 57% of matches and wins 43%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hearts
St. Mirren
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hearts | Liga | St. Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.14 | 2.55 | ▼ 2.43 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 86% | 52% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 86% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 26% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 79% | ▼ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 76% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Hearts 1 - 1 - 1 St. Mirren. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hearts vs St. Mirren?
The Premiership match finished Hearts 5:0 St. Mirren. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hearts and St. Mirren?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hearts won 1, St. Mirren won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hearts vs St. Mirren?
Hearts score 2.00 goals per game on average and St. Mirren 1.14. The Premiership average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 86% of Hearts's matches and 29% of St. Mirren's.
What form are Hearts and St. Mirren in?
Over the last 5 games Hearts have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and St. Mirren 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hearts vs St. Mirren?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.