Hibernian vs Celtic: match statistics

Celtic holds a clear advantage in form and efficiency — they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and averaging 2.4 points in that period, while Hibernian have just 1 win, 4 goals and 1.0 point on average in their last five. Over the season the visitors have 22 wins and 62 goals versus Hibernian’s 13 wins and 52 goals, underscoring Celtic’s superiority in wins and goal production. However, Hibernian defend well at home: only 0.94 goals conceded per match on average and 47% clean sheets, while also scoring 1.82 goals at home with 5.35 shots on target per game and a 13% conversion rate, compared to Celtic’s 1.47 goals, 4.12 shots on target and 10% conversion rate away. Celtic dominate possession (64% away) and have similar xG (1.59 away vs 1.66 for the hosts), but concede more on the road (1.35 goals per match) and record only 24% clean sheets away, which balances the risk. Considering the visitors’ form (12 goals in 5 matches) and Hibernian’s solid home defence, I expect a Celtic victory; I assess probabilities as 30% home, 20% draw and 50% away.

I predict BTTS - No due to the home side’s defensive edge. Hibernian concede an average of 0.76 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 53% of home games, with xG against of 0.82, which strongly limits Celtic’s chances. Celtic’s away BTTS this season is 59%, and in the last 5 matches they have 60% BTTS and average 2.4 goals per match (12 goals in 5), but their average shots on target of 4.12 is much lower than Hibernian’s 7.24, and Celtic’s xG_for_away is 1.59 versus Hibernian’s xG_for_home of 2.26. Hibernian score 2.18 goals per home game seasonally, but in the last 5 they have only 4 goals (0.8 per match) and a 20% BTTS, so I expect a low-scoring or one-sided game; therefore the ‘No’ scenario looks more likely.

xG estimates give Hibernian ~1.79 goals ((attacking xG 2.26 + xG against Celtic 1.32)/2 = 1.79) and Celtic ~1.21 goals ((1.59 + 0.82)/2 = 1.21), totaling about 3.00 goals. Seasonally Hibernian records Over 1.5 in 76% of matches, Celtic in 82%, and the league average is 2.75 goals per game — these figures strongly support at least two goals. For the 2.5 line Hibernian has Over 2.5 in 71% of matches, Celtic in 59%, but the last 5 matches show 40% for Hibernian and 60% for Celtic, hence estimated P(Over 2.5) ≈58%. The 3.5 line is less likely: seasonally Over 3.5 occurs in 47% (Hibernian) and 29% (Celtic), and a Poisson model with lambda=3.00 gives P(Over 3.5) ≈35%, so the downside risk is clearly higher. The strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (~80%), therefore I recommend playing Over at the 1.5 line.

Statistics strongly favor Hibernian to lead at the break and to win: the hosts lead at half-time in 59% of home matches and score an average of 0.94 goals in the first half versus Celtic’s 0.76, while keeping a clean sheet at half-time in 76% of games. Over the full match Hibernian average 2.18 goals with an xG of 2.26 and record 7.24 shots on target, whereas Celtic average 1.47 goals, xG 1.59 and 4.12 shots on target, indicating a home advantage in chance creation. Hibernian win 76% of home games and have a 53% rate of full-match clean sheets at home, so a lead at the break often converts into victory; Celtic win 53% of away matches, giving them some potential to respond. One should however account for Celtic’s form: 4 wins in the last 5 matches (80%) and leading at half-time in 4 of those 5 (80%), therefore I allow alternatives with a draw at half-time or a turnaround. In summary, the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (~50%), with X/1 (~16%) and X/X (~12%) as the most significant alternatives.