Hibernian vs Hearts: match statistics

Hearts head into the derby in the more stable run of form: they have avoided defeat in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Hibernian have managed 2 wins, 2 draws and a defeat over the same period. The visitors have scored as many as 13 goals in their last five games, clearly more than Hibernian’s 5, and have 7 goals after 3 matches this season compared with the hosts’ 3. Hibernian do, however, create more chances at home, averaging 2.08 xG, 19 shots and 6 shots on target per match, compared with Hearts’ 1.71 xG, 16 shots and 4 shots on target away from home. Both teams lost their only match so far played at home and away respectively, conceding 2 goals each, so this should be a closely contested and high-scoring encounter, but Hearts’ current finishing form gives them a slight edge.

Hearts have recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of matches both across the entire season and in their last 5 fixtures, scoring an average of 2.6 goals and conceding 1.6 during this period. Hibernian kept a clean sheet in 50% of their season matches, but their current defensive data is weaker: in their last 5 fixtures, they allowed opponents an average xG of 1.63. The hosts are highly effective at home, averaging 3.0 goals from 7.0 shots on target per match, while Hearts have not recorded a single clean sheet. Although Hibernian's BTTS rate is only 40% in their last 5 matches, their average xG of 1.07 and 5 goals scored in this period support at least one goal against a visiting defence conceding an average of 1.6 goals. The stronger attacking signals from the hosts and the regular goals scored by both sides in Hearts' matches make the BTTS scenario more likely.

The strongest signal points to Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have gone above this line in 100% of their league matches so far. Hibernian average 3.0 goals scored at home, while Hearts concede 2.0 goals away from home, although the hosts’ recent form has been weaker, yielding just 1.0 goal per match. Hearts have averaged 2.6 goals scored across their last five appearances, while Hibernian have allowed opponents an xG of 1.63 during this period. On the other hand, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, which is why the projected 2.80 goals support Over 1.5 goals much more strongly than the riskier Over 2.5 goals.

A draw at half-time followed by a Hearts win is the most likely HT/FT outcome, as the visitors have not lost any of their last five matches and have averaged 2.6 goals scored, compared with Hibernian’s 1.0. Both teams have recently produced cautious first halves: Hibernian averaged 0.4 goals before the break and Hearts 0.6, while one of the sides failed to score before half-time in 60% of these matches. After the interval, Hearts step up significantly, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with the second half producing at least two goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Hibernian have strong figures from a small home sample, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, but the visitors’ current form and their 60% second-half win rate point towards the match turning in Hearts’ favour later on. The 2/2 scenario remains realistic, but Hearts’ recent results show that they more often build a lead after the break than from the opening whistle.