Hibernian vs Kilmarnock: match statistics
Hibernian vs Kilmarnock: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hibernian played Kilmarnock in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Hibernian: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Kilmarnock: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hibernian scores 1.55 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Kilmarnock scores 1.13 and concedes 1.94. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hibernian 52%, Kilmarnock 58%. Over 2.5: Hibernian 52%, Kilmarnock 61%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Hibernian has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.27. Hibernian: 13.2 shots per match, Kilmarnock: 11.1.
Match halves
Hibernian: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.84. Kilmarnock: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
Hibernian: 76-90+ (13 goals). Kilmarnock: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hibernian has a clear advantage at home: they average 1.8 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.80, while Kilmarnock score only 1.0 goals away with xG 1.06. Additionally, the hosts register 5.8 shots on target per home match versus 3.53 for the visitors on the road, and total shots 15.93 vs 8.73 indicate Hibernian creates significantly more chances. Defensively the gap is even wider: Hibernian concede on average 0.93 goals at home, while Kilmarnock concede 2.33 away; in the last 5 matches Hibernian conceded 4 goals and Kilmarnock 9. Hibernian remain unbeaten in their last 5 fixtures (2 wins, 3 draws) and have 47% of home matches without conceding, whereas Kilmarnock win only 7% of away games and keep 13% clean sheets on the road. Considering the xG advantage (1.80 vs 1.06), superior defence (0.93 vs 2.33) and larger volume of chances (15.93 vs 8.73), I forecast a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The "Both Teams To Score" scenario is more likely due to Kilmarnock's clear defensive issues and Hibernian's chance-creating ability. Kilmarnock concedes an average of 2.33 goals per match this season and has BTTS in 73% of games, while Hibernian produces xG 1.47 at home and has scored 48 goals this season. In the last 5 matches both teams scored a combined 7 goals each (1.4 per match), with defenses conceding 0.8 for Hibernian and 1.8 for Kilmarnock — this shows the visitors remain vulnerable. Shot statistics support this scenario: Hibernian averages 13.31 shots and 4.06 shots on target per match, Kilmarnock 8.73 shots and 3.53 on target, and the visitors have an 11% conversion rate and only 13% clean sheets this season. Considering Kilmarnock 73% BTTS, Hibernian 44% BTTS and xG 1.47 versus Kilmarnock's xG against 2.04, I rate BTTS at 72% and back 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.75 for Hibernian and 1.24 for Kilmarnock (total 2.99), calculated as the average xG of both sides: Hibernian xG_for 1.47 and Kilmarnock xG_against 2.04 give ~1.75, while Kilmarnock xG_for 1.06 and Hibernian xG_against 1.43 give ~1.24. The total 2.99 is above the league average of 2.66, which increases the likelihood of matches with more than 2 goals. Seasonal metrics confirm the offensive tendency of both teams: Hibernian have 75% of home matches over 1.5 goals, Kilmarnock have 93% of away matches over 1.5, and Over 2.5 occurs in 56% and 67% of their matches respectively. Additionally, BTTS occurs in 44% of Hibernian matches and 73% of Kilmarnock matches, and Kilmarnock concede an average of 2.33 goals away, raising the chance of goals from both sides. As a result I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal — a Poisson model with an expected total of 2.99 gives about an 80% probability of ≥2 goals; Over 2.5 is moderate (~57%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~35%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hibernian have a clear lead at the break: the hosts were leading at half-time in 8 matches (50%) and score an average of 0.81 goals in the first half versus 0.47 for Kilmarnock. Additionally, Hibernian generate more xG (1.47 vs 1.06) and concede lower xG against (1.43 vs 2.04), which supports a higher number of chances and a better defensive profile for the hosts. On the other hand, Kilmarnock have a high away BTTS rate (73%) and score an average of 0.53 goals after the break, while Hibernian concede on average 1.13 goals in second halves, giving the visitors realistic chances to stage a turnaround. In 81% of Hibernian’s matches at least one goal is scored by half-time, so the most likely scenario is the hosts leading after 45 minutes and holding on to win (HT/FT 1/1 ~29%), while alternatives are half-time draw and home win (X/1 14%) or home lead at the break and full-time draw (1/X 14%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hibernian | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hibernian is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Hibernian · 1.4 pts / match - Kilmarnock
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hibernian is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.55 goals / match - Hibernian · 1.13 goals / match - Kilmarnock
Hibernian is 72% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Hibernian · 1.94 goals / match - Kilmarnock
Hibernian scores in 71% of matches (22 of 31 matches), while Kilmarnock keeps a clean sheet in 23% (7 of 31 matches).
Kilmarnock scores in 74% of matches (23 of 31 matches), while Hibernian keeps a clean sheet in 32% (10 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hibernian
Over / Under - Kilmarnock
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hibernian is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.58 pts / match - Hibernian · 1.32 pts / match - Kilmarnock
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hibernian - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Kilmarnock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 19%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hibernian
Kilmarnock
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hibernian | Liga | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.66 | ▲ 3.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 50% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 49% | ▲ 61% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 29% | ▼ 23% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 74% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 78% | ▲ 84% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Hibernian 1 - 1 - 0 Kilmarnock. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
The Premiership match finished Hibernian 3:0 Kilmarnock. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hibernian and Kilmarnock?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Hibernian won 1, Kilmarnock won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
Hibernian score 1.55 goals per game on average and Kilmarnock 1.13. The Premiership average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Hibernian's matches and 58% of Kilmarnock's.
What form are Hibernian and Kilmarnock in?
Over the last 5 games Hibernian have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Kilmarnock 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hibernian vs Kilmarnock?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.