Hibernian vs Motherwell: match statistics

Hibernian hold the home advantage: the hosts score 1.78 goals per home match compared to Motherwell’s 1.44 away, while average xG is 1.59 for Hibernian versus 1.44 for Motherwell. Defensively the hosts are more reliable — conceding 1.00 goal at home with xG against 1.32, whereas the visitors concede 1.28 goals away with xG against 1.48, and clean sheet rates of 44% vs 28%. Hibernian also register more shots and more on-target attempts: 14 shots and 5.11 shots on target per match versus Motherwell’s 12.33 shots and 4.11 on target, with slightly better finishing 13% vs 12%. In the last five matches both teams have scored 7 goals, but the hosts show better short-term points form (1.2 points per match vs 0.8) and have conceded 8 goals versus 10 for the visitors. Considering the lower share of matches without scoring (17% vs 28%), superior home goal difference (+14 vs +3) and advantages across key metrics, I predict a Hibernian win; probabilities estimated at approximately 60% home, 20% draw and 20% away.

Both teams show a strong form signal: BTTS in the last 5 matches stands at 80% for each side (4 of 5 games), with both teams averaging 1.4 goals in those matches. Over the season Hibernian has a low BTTS of 37%, concedes only 0.68 goals per game on average and records a 63% clean sheet rate, which historically favors the “No Goal” scenario. Motherwell’s seasonal BTTS is 61% and they score 1.44 goals on average, while in the last 5 matches they concede 2.0 goals on average, increasing the likelihood of the opponent scoring. xG indicates Hibernian generates 1.66 xG at home versus Motherwell’s xG against of 1.48, but Hibernian’s last 5 matches show xG against at 2.1, suggesting defensive vulnerability. Considering the dominant trend from the last 5 matches (80% BTTS) and higher average goals conceded in form (1.6 and 2.0), I assess BTTS at 65% vs 35% and recommend the selection “BTTS - Yes”.

Hibernian averages 1.68 goals per match, Motherwell 1.44; xG is 1.66 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors, with xG against 1.05 (Hibernian) and 1.48 (Motherwell). The mean of these xG values gives an expected 1.57 goals for Hibernian and 1.25 for Motherwell, totalling 2.82, which in a Poisson model translates to roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals and ~54% chance of at least 3 goals. Season-long over 1.5 shares are high: 84% (Hibernian) and 72% (Motherwell) — average 78% — while over 2.5 sits seasonally at 32% for the hosts and 50% for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Hibernian scored 7 and conceded 8 (1.4/1.6), and Motherwell scored 7 and conceded 10 (1.4/2.0), which supports the expectation of more than one goal in the match despite Hibernian having 63% clean sheets. Therefore the best signal is backing Over 1.5 (probability ~78%), whereas the 2.5 line is more balanced (~54% Over vs 46% Under).

Hibernian holds a clear statistical advantage: the hosts average 1.68 goals scored at home and concede only 0.68, while Motherwell average 1.44 scored and 1.28 conceded away, yielding a +1.00 difference in mean goals in favour of the home side. On xG metrics Hibernian generates 1.66 xG versus Motherwell’s 1.44 and defends better (xG against Hibernian 1.05 vs 1.48 against Motherwell), and Hibernian also averages 5.58 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 4.11. At half-time Hibernian have led in 9 matches (47%) and score a mean of 0.79 goals before the break, whereas Motherwell have 6 half-time leads (33%) and 0.67 goals in the first 45 minutes, which favours a scenario with the home side leading at the break. Over full-time Hibernian win 53% of home matches and keep a clean sheet in 63% of games, while the visitors have only 28% of away matches without conceding; therefore the most likely and strongest signal from the data is HT/FT 1/1.