Hillerød vs Lyngby: match statistics

Lyngby are the favorites: they sit 1st and have scored 54 goals this season versus Hillerød’s 34, and in the last 5 matches they have 12 goals compared to the hosts’ 4. The visitors are also more efficient — away conversion rate 17% versus 12% for the hosts, with average goals per game 2.17 away vs 1.33 for Hillerød. Hillerød’s strong point is home defence: they concede only 0.83 goals per game at home and have 33% clean sheets, while Lyngby concede 1.33 on the road and have shipped 7 goals in their last 5 fixtures. The quality of created chances is similar (xG at home 1.43 for Hillerød vs 1.57 for Lyngby away), and possession and shots are nearly even (52% and 11.42 vs 53% and 13), so efficiency will be decisive. Considering the higher total goals this season (54 vs 34), better shot efficiency and higher points-per-game in the last 5 matches (2.0 vs 1.4), I give Lyngby the greater probability, although the hosts’ solid defence increases the likelihood of a draw.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: Hillerød 62% and Lyngby 58% vs league average 54%, indicating a tendency for reciprocal scoring. Lyngby are very attacking recently — BTTS 80% in their last 5 matches and averaging 2.4 goals (12 in 5), while Hillerød have BTTS 40% in their last 5 and average 0.8 goals (4 in 5), which weakens the home side. Seasonal xG and shots indicate chances are created by both sides: xG 1.74 for Hillerød vs 1.57 for Lyngby and on average 5.46 and 4.83 shots on target per match, supporting the possibility of Goal/Goal. Hillerød concede 0.92 goals per match with 38% clean sheets, and Lyngby concede 1.33 goals, so there is a real risk of the hosts conceding. Given seasonal BTTS above 54% and Lyngby’s strong attacking form, I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely (67% vs 33%).

The model combines teams’ xG and opponent defensive strength: Hillerød expected 1.56 goals (attacking xG 1.74 vs Lyngby’s conceded xG 1.38), Lyngby expected 1.34 goals (attacking xG 1.57 vs Hillerød’s conceded xG 1.11), totaling 2.90 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.90 yields roughly a 79% chance of Over 1.5 goals (P(0)+P(1)≈21%), about 55% for Over 2.5 and about 33% for Over 3.5. Season-long stats confirm a goal-oriented trend: Hillerød has 92% of matches Over 1.5, Lyngby 83%; both teams also show high Over 2.5 rates (Hillerød 69%, Lyngby 67%), and Both Teams To Score rates of 62% for Hillerød and 58% for Lyngby. In the last 5 matches Lyngby averages 2.4 goals and has 80% Over 2.5, while Hillerød averages 0.8 goals in their last 5, suggesting the visitors could significantly boost the total goals. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 (line 1.5) as the strongest signal: 79% per the model and supported by season figures 92%/83%.

I’m backing HT/FT 1/1 (Hillerød leading at the break and winning) as the most likely scenario. Hillerød led at half-time in 46% of matches and average 0.92 goals scored by the break while conceding only 0.46, whereas Lyngby average 0.83 scored and 0.92 conceded by half-time, yielding a HT balance of +0.46 for the home side versus -0.09 for the visitors. Over the full match Hillerød record 2.08 points per game and a 62% home win rate; they also generate higher xG (1.74 vs 1.57), more shots (14.54 vs 13.0) and more shots on target (5.46 vs 4.83), which increases the likelihood of them maintaining a lead. Caution is warranted, however, because Lyngby have been in good form over the last five matches (60% wins and 9 first-half goals in those five) and have scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90, which raises the risk of a second-half turnaround.