HJK vs Mariehamn: match statistics
HJK vs Mariehamn: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
HJK played Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 30 May 2026. Venue: Bolt Arena. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
HJK: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Mariehamn: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
HJK scores 1.33 and concedes 0.89 goals per match. Mariehamn scores 0.63 and concedes 1.63. League average: 2.37 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: HJK 44%, Mariehamn 50%. Over 2.5: HJK 44%, Mariehamn 38%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 40%.
xG, shots and style
HJK has higher xG: 1.45 vs 0.80. HJK: 12.4 shots per match, Mariehamn: 5.8.
Match halves
HJK: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.67. Mariehamn: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
HJK: 31-45+ (4 goals). Mariehamn: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.37 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 40%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 7.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
HJK is the clear favorite: at home they average 1.5 goals scored per game, concede 0.75 and have 50% wins and 50% clean sheets in home matches. Mariehamn are severely limited away — they average 0.25 goals scored, 2.0 conceded, 0% wins and 75% of away games without scoring. Quality-of-chance metrics confirm the home advantage: HJK have home xG 1.62 versus Mariehamn’s 0.62 xG away, and HJK concede 1.33 xG compared to 2.16 xG conceded by the visitors, yielding roughly a 1.0 expected-goal advantage. The difference in attacking quality is also visible in shot metrics — HJK average 13.25 shots and 4.75 on target at home, while Mariehamn manage only 3.75 shots and 1.0 on target away, with finishing rates of 11% versus 7%. Considering also that HJK have 1.4 points per game in the last 5 while Mariehamn have 1.0, and the visitors have no away wins, I tip a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - No. Mariehamn average only 0.25 goals away (5 goals this season) and have just 25% of away matches with BTTS, which greatly reduces the likelihood of an away goal. HJK at home have a high seasonal BTTS rate of 75% and average 1.0 home goals, and in the last 5 matches the home side scored 18 goals (3.6 per match) while Mariehamn scored 5 in their last 5 (1.0). Chance creation favors HJK: at home HJK register xG 0.98 and 3.25 shots on target, whereas Mariehamn away have xG 0.62 and only 1.0 shots on target; with shot conversion 13% for the hosts versus 7% for the visitors, the visitors have limited ability to convert opportunities. Additionally Mariehamn concede on average 2.0 goals away and have conceded 13 away goals, while HJK at home have scored 12 and conceded 8; these figures indicate the hosts will dominate offensively and the visitors may remain goalless. As a result I assess BTTS - No at 70% vs 30% for BTTS - Yes, because Mariehamn’s low goal output (0.25 away, xG 0.62) outweighs HJK’s historical involvement in both-teams-to-score games.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The forecast is based on xG from the last 5 matches: HJK has an average attacking xG of 2.03, Mariehamn 0.96, and xG against is 0.99 for HJK and 1.94 for Mariehamn; averaging gives expected goals of approximately 1.99 for HJK and 0.98 for Mariehamn (total 2.97). HJK’s form is very offensive — in the last 5 matches they scored 18 goals (3.6 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2), with 80% of those games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Mariehamn in the last 5 matches scored 5 goals (1.0 average) and conceded 6 (1.2), with only 40% of their last five matches Over 2.5. Additionally, HJK averages 7.75 shots and 3.25 on target versus 3.75 and 1.0 for Mariehamn, and HJK’s conversion rate is 13% versus 7% for the opponent, which increases the likelihood of more goals. As a result I recommend a bet on Over 2.5: expected 2.97 goals, high Over 2.5 frequency in HJK form (80%) and the xG advantage provide the strongest signal (I estimate Over 2.5 at about 68%, Over 3.5 at about 38%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal points to HJK leading at half-time and the home side winning the match (1/1). In their last five matches HJK led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5) and averaged 2.0 first-half goals, whereas Mariehamn averaged 0.4 goals at half-time over the same five matches and led in only 20% of fixtures. HJK creates significantly more chances: on average 7.75 shots and 3.25 on target per game versus Mariehamn’s 3.75 shots and 1.0 on target, and the home side’s xG is 0.98 compared to the visitors’ 0.62. Mariehamn concedes 2.0 goals per game season-to-date and scores only 0.25 goals per game, while HJK also tend to score just before half-time (three goals in minutes 31–45), increasing the likelihood of a lead at the break. Despite HJK’s season-long draw rate of 75%, the hosts’ recent form (40% wins in the last five and 60% half-time leads) combined with the gap in goal-scoring situations makes the 1/1 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario the strongest.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| HJK | Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
HJK is 150% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - HJK · 0.4 pts / match - Mariehamn
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
HJK is 111% better for: goals scored per match.
1.33 goals / match - HJK · 0.63 goals / match - Mariehamn
HJK is 83% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.89 goals / match - HJK · 1.63 goals / match - Mariehamn
HJK scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Mariehamn keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 8 matches).
Mariehamn scores in 50% of matches (4 of 8 matches), while HJK keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - HJK
Over / Under - Mariehamn
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
HJK is 123% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - HJK · 0.75 pts / match - Mariehamn
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
HJK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mariehamn - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
HJK
Mariehamn
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| HJK | Liga | Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.22 | 2.37 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 50% | • 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 44% | 40% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 28% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 81% | ▲ 88% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 71% | ▲ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): HJK 2 - 0 - 0 Mariehamn. Average goals 7.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of HJK vs Mariehamn?
The Veikkausliiga match finished HJK 1:0 Mariehamn. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between HJK and Mariehamn?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches HJK won 2, Mariehamn won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 7.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before HJK vs Mariehamn?
HJK score 1.33 goals per game on average and Mariehamn 0.63. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.37 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of games. Both teams score in 44% of HJK's matches and 50% of Mariehamn's.
What form are HJK and Mariehamn in?
Over the last 5 games HJK have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Mariehamn 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for HJK vs Mariehamn?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for HJK vs Mariehamn: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.