Hobro vs Middelfart: match statistics
Hobro vs Middelfart: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hobro played Middelfart in 1st Division (Denmark). The match was played on 30 May 2026. Venue: DS Arena. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Hobro: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Middelfart: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hobro scores 1.19 and concedes 1.32 goals per match. Middelfart scores 0.97 and concedes 2.39. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hobro 42%, Middelfart 58%. Over 2.5: Hobro 39%, Middelfart 71%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Hobro has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.22. Hobro: 12.0 shots per match, Middelfart: 10.0.
Match halves
Hobro: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.61. Middelfart: half-time lead 16%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Hobro: 31-45+ (8 goals). Middelfart: 0-15 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1st Division: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hobro is the favorite: they sit 10th vs 12th for Middelfart, have 10 wins this season compared to just 3 away wins for the visitors, and have scored 37 goals vs 30. Middelfart’s defense is a major issue – the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away and have shipped 74 goals overall, while Hobro concedes 1.6 at home and 41 in total; in the last 5 matches Middelfart conceded 12 goals and Hobro 7. In attack Hobro creates more chances: on average 12.8 shots and 4.33 on target per home game vs 10.13 and 2.93 for Middelfart; despite a slightly lower conversion rate (8% vs 9%), Hobro has a higher xG (1.48 vs 1.21), indicating more high-quality chances. Form confirms the home advantage: in the last 5 matches Hobro are 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss and average 1.6 points per game, while Middelfart have 1 win and 4 losses with 0.6 points per game; additionally clean sheets occur in 27% of Hobro’s home games vs 7% of away games for the visitors. Based on these numbers I forecast a Hobro win, estimating the probabilities as: home win 65%, draw 20%, Middelfart win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 56% (Hobro) and 60% (Middelfart), versus a league average BTTS of 55%, indicating a tilt toward a Goal/Goal outcome. Clean sheets are rare: clean sheet percentages are only 6% (Hobro) and 7% (Middelfart), while seasonal average goals conceded are 2.44 and 2.33, so both defenses are prone to concessions. In the last 5 matches Hobro have conceded 7 goals (1.4 per match) and Middelfart 12 goals (2.4 per match), further confirming the visitors' defensive vulnerability. xG indicates both sides create chances — xG for is 1.22 (Hobro) and 1.21 (Middelfart), and xG against is 1.64 and 1.97 — so the risk of goals from both teams is high. Additionally, 75% of Hobro’s matches and 67% of Middelfart’s matches finish over 2.5 goals, and the combined 'over2.5 and BTTS' occurs in 56% and 60% of their matches, therefore I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability split of 78% vs 22% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Both teams display weak defending: Hobro concedes an average of 2.44 goals per match and Middelfart 2.33, with Middelfart having let in 74 goals this season versus Hobro’s 41, increasing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. xG is 1.22 for Hobro and 1.21 for Middelfart, with xG against of 1.64 (Hobro) and 1.97 (Middelfart); averaging these values yields expected goals of roughly 1.60 for the home side and 1.42 for the visitors, totaling ~3.02. Seasonal over rates are high: Over 1.5 is 75% (Hobro) and 80% (Middelfart), while Over 2.5 is 75% and 67%; additionally the percentage of matches where both teams scored is 56% for Hobro and 60% for Middelfart, so many games feature goals at both ends. Hobro averages 3.69 shots on target, Middelfart 2.93, and clean sheets occur in only 6% and 7% of matches, confirming a propensity for goals. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is a draw at half-time: Hobro were level at the break in 44% of matches and Middelfart in 40%, so the most common state at 45 minutes is a draw. Second halves produce a lot of goals — in second halves Hobro average 1.88 goals (94% of matches have at least one goal in the second half), and Middelfart 1.80 (87% of such matches), which increases the likelihood of a decision after the break. Hobro have been in better form recently: 40% wins in their last 5 matches versus 20% for Middelfart, and the average points gained by half-time in the last 5 matches are 1.4 for Hobro and 1.2 for Middelfart, so it is more likely that the home side will decide the match after the break. Additionally the away defence is weaker according to xG: Middelfart concede on average 1.97 xG against them versus 1.64 for Hobro, and the hosts register more shots on target (3.69 vs 2.93), which favors a Hobro win in the second half. Given the low season win rates (Hobro 6%, Middelfart 13%) and the low first-half goal averages (0.56 and 0.53), the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a Hobro win at full-time (X/1), while a full-time draw (X/X) is also a realistic outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hobro | Middelfart | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hobro is 167% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Hobro · 0.6 pts / match - Middelfart
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hobro is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.19 goals / match - Hobro · 0.97 goals / match - Middelfart
Hobro is 81% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.32 goals / match - Hobro · 2.39 goals / match - Middelfart
Hobro scores in 74% of matches (23 of 31 matches), while Middelfart keeps a clean sheet in 6% (2 of 31 matches).
Middelfart scores in 61% of matches (19 of 31 matches), while Hobro keeps a clean sheet in 35% (11 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hobro
Over / Under - Middelfart
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hobro is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / match - Hobro · 0.9 pts / match - Middelfart
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hobro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Middelfart - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 16% of matches and wins 10%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (18). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hobro
Middelfart
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1st Division).
Teams vs league
| Hobro | Liga | Middelfart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.52 | 2.80 | ▲ 3.35 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 42% | 55% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 39% | 54% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 35% | 26% | ▼ 6% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Hobro 2 - 1 - 0 Middelfart. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hobro vs Middelfart?
The 1st Division match finished Hobro 3:2 Middelfart. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hobro and Middelfart?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hobro won 2, Middelfart won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hobro vs Middelfart?
Hobro score 1.19 goals per game on average and Middelfart 0.97. The 1st Division average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Hobro's matches and 58% of Middelfart's.
What form are Hobro and Middelfart in?
Over the last 5 games Hobro have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Middelfart 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hobro vs Middelfart?
The statistical background for Hobro vs Middelfart — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.