Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05: match statistics
Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hoffenheim play Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (Germany). The match date is 4 April 2026 at 15:30. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Hoffenheim: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Mainz 05: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hoffenheim scores 1.91 and concedes 1.53 goals per match. Mainz 05 scores 1.29 and concedes 1.56. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hoffenheim 65%, Mainz 05 62%. Over 2.5: Hoffenheim 71%, Mainz 05 53%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Hoffenheim has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.42. Hoffenheim: 14.1 shots per match, Mainz 05: 12.1.
Match halves
Hoffenheim: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.85. Mainz 05: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.62.
Goals by minute
Hoffenheim: 31-45+ (19 goals). Mainz 05: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I predict a Hoffenheim win (1). The home side have scored 54 goals this season, averaging 2.15 goals per home match, while Mainz have 33 goals this season and only 1.23 away, giving Hoffenheim a clear offensive edge. Hoffenheim average 16.15 shots and 6.08 shots on target per home game and have a home xG of 1.87 versus Mainz’s away xG of 1.14; additionally the hosts control possession 57% of the time while the visitors only 39%. However, Mainz are in better recent form: in their last five matches they have scored 8 and conceded only 3 (3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 points per game), whereas Hoffenheim have also scored 8 but conceded 14 (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per game). Considering Hoffenheim’s season-long advantage in chance creation and efficiency (home goal difference +13 and home win rate 62% versus Mainz’s 23% away), but also the hosts’ weaker short-term trend, I assign 60% probability to the home win, 20% to a draw and 20% to the away side.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hoffenheim | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hoffenheim is 43% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Hoffenheim · 1.4 pts / match - Mainz 05
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hoffenheim is 48% better for: goals scored per match.
1.91 goals / match - Hoffenheim · 1.29 goals / match - Mainz 05
Hoffenheim scores in 82% of matches (28 of 34 matches), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 12% (4 of 34 matches).
Mainz 05 scores in 71% of matches (24 of 34 matches), while Hoffenheim keeps a clean sheet in 21% (7 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Hoffenheim
Over / Under — Mainz 05
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hoffenheim is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.62 pts / match - Hoffenheim · 1.38 pts / match - Mainz 05
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hoffenheim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 29%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (19 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Hoffenheim | Liga | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.44 | 3.24 | ▼ 2.85 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 62% | • 62% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 71% | 64% | ▼ 53% |
| Clean sheets | • 21% | 21% | ▼ 12% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 77% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 86% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hoffenheim 0 - 1 - 0 Mainz 05. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05?
The Bundesliga match finished Hoffenheim 1:2 Mainz 05. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05?
Hoffenheim score 1.91 goals per game on average and Mainz 05 1.29. The Bundesliga average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Hoffenheim's matches and 62% of Mainz 05's.
What form are Hoffenheim and Mainz 05 in?
Over the last 5 games Hoffenheim have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mainz 05 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.