Horsens vs Lyngby: match statistics

Horsens hold the edge in current form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, recording 2 wins and a draw, while Lyngby have managed just 2 points and have not won any of those games. However, the visitors are more dangerous in terms of chance creation away from home, averaging 17.5 shots and an xG of 2.06, clearly above Horsens’ home figures of 9 shots and an xG of 1.01. Lyngby’s key weakness remains their defense: away from home, they concede an average of 2.5 goals, have lost both matches and have failed to keep a clean sheet. Horsens are also defensively vulnerable, allowing opponents an xG of 1.77 and conceding 1.5 goals per home game, but the visitors’ poor finishing — just 1 away goal despite their high xG — improves the hosts’ chances. An open game is expected, with Horsens’ more consistent recent form potentially deciding a narrow home win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that Horsens have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches so far, while Lyngby’s figure rises to 80% across their last five games. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, with Lyngby conceding an average of 2.5 goals this season and 2.0 across their last five outings. The visitors’ attacking potential remains high despite scoring only 1.2 goals in their last five matches, as they create an average of 1.93 xG and register 5.5 shots on target per game. Horsens average 1.5 goals, while their defence allowed opponents 1.65 xG in the latest run of fixtures, increasing Lyngby’s chances of finding the net. The hosts’ recent xG is lower at 1.1, but Lyngby’s weak defence and lack of clean sheets clearly strengthen the Goal/Goal scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as this line has been surpassed in 100% of the teams’ previous matches. Horsens score an average of 1.5 goals per game, while Lyngby concede as many as 2.5, which clearly strengthens the outlook for a home goal. The visitors create plenty of chances, averaging 2.06 xG and 5.5 shots on target per match, while Horsens have allowed opponents 1.65 xG in their last five games. In Lyngby’s last five matches, games with at least 2.5 goals accounted for 60%, while both teams scored in 80%; however, the visitors’ moderate conversion rate of 6% limits confidence in the higher lines. The projected total of 2.83 goals gives Over 1.5 a clear edge, whereas the 2.5 and 3.5 lines are already considerably more balanced.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Horsens win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and led at that stage in 0% of them. Lyngby can be dangerous from the outset, leading at half-time in 40% of their last five games, but they also conceded an average of 0.6 goals before the break, while Horsens scored 0.4 goals in that period. The second half is key: Horsens won it in 60% of their last five matches, scoring 0.6 goals and conceding just 0.2, whereas Lyngby lost the second half in 60% of their games and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts also have clearly superior current points form, averaging 1.4 points per match compared with Lyngby’s 0.4, while the visitors conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five outings. Although Lyngby have a higher average xG, 2.06 compared with 1.73, their defensive weakness and post-break regression support a Horsens turnaround or a decisive result from a level scoreline.