Ilves vs Lahti: match statistics

Ilves have a clear home advantage: they win 55% of their home matches, score an average of 1.55 goals per game there, and keep a clean sheet in 55% of fixtures. Lahti, however, come into the match in better recent form, picking up 10 points from their last five games compared with Ilves’ 4, while conceding just 3 goals during that period versus 7 for the hosts. The visitors’ main weakness is their away record, scoring only 0.82 goals per match and failing to find the net in 36% of games, whereas Ilves have scored in 91% of their home fixtures. The hosts are also significantly more clinical in front of goal, converting 16% of their shots compared with Lahti’s 7%. Although Lahti’s away xG stands at 1.37, slightly higher than Ilves’ 1.27 at home, the hosts’ superior conversion rate and defensive solidity on their own ground slightly tip the prediction in their favour.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams score is low: 45% for Ilves and just 36% for Lahti, compared with 49% across the league. The strongest argument for a BTTS - No scenario is Lahti’s attack, which averages 0.82 goals per match, fails to score in 36% of its games, and converts just 7% of its shots into goals. Ilves concedes an average of only 0.91 goals and keeps a clean sheet in 45% of matches, so the visitors may struggle to turn their recent improved chance-creation metrics into goals. Although Ilves conceded 1.4 goals across its last five matches, with opponents’ xG at 1.92, Lahti conceded only 3 goals during that period. Therefore, the most likely outcome remains a result in which at least one team fails to score.

The profile of both teams clearly supports a limited number of goals: matches with a maximum of 3 goals accounted for 82% of Ilves fixtures and as many as 100% of Lahti matches. Lahti score an average of just 0.82 goals away from home, while Ilves concede 0.91 at home, reducing the prospect of a high-scoring game for the visitors. The hosts score an average of 1.55 goals, but Lahti’s defense allows just 0.82 goals on average, keeping Ilves’ projection close to 1.30 goals. Results above 2.5 goals were also rare, occurring in 36% of Ilves matches and 27% of Lahti fixtures, compared with a league average of 46%. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 1.2 goals scored per game, making Under 3.5 the market best supported by the data.

Ilves have a clear first-half advantage: they led at the break in 45% of their matches, averaging 1.00 goals scored and conceding just 0.36, while Lahti scored only 0.36 goals before half-time. The visitors failed to score in 64% of first halves and went into the break trailing in 36%, strengthening the scenario of a home lead. Across the season, Ilves average 1.55 goals with a 12% shot-conversion rate, whereas Lahti score just 0.82 goals and lose 45% of their matches. The home advantage is also supported by xG: 1.48 for Ilves compared with Lahti’s 1.37, alongside Ilves’ stronger defence, which allows 1.09 xG, while Lahti’s opponents average 1.42 xG. Lahti’s recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, increasing the chances of a draw or a turnaround; however, the most likely outcome remains Ilves maintaining their lead from half-time to full-time.