Ilves vs SJK: match statistics

Ilves is the favorite: at home they have won 67% of matches, have a home goal difference of +5 and average 1.83 goals scored per game. SJK away has only a 17% win rate, a negative goal difference of -5 and averages 1.00 goal per game, with 50% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 fixtures Ilves scored 14 goals (2.8 per game) and averages 1.8 points per match, while SJK has 8 goals (1.6 per game) and only 0.8 points per match. Ilves averages 4.67 shots on target and 9.5 total shots per game with a 19% conversion rate at home, versus SJK’s 4.0 shots on target and 11% conversion away, which provides an edge in quality of chances. xG is similar (1.31 for Ilves vs 1.18 for SJK), but Ilves’ superior efficiency, 67% clean sheets and 0% games without a goal at home shift the odds in favor of the hosts.

Data indicate BTTS - Yes: Ilves has a season BTTS rate of 67% vs SJK's 50%, while in the last 5 matches SJK recorded 100% BTTS versus Ilves 40%, which strongly signals both teams will score. Ilves generates an average xG of 1.92 with 16.83 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, whereas SJK concedes an average xG of 1.69 and seasonally concedes 1.83 goals, so Ilves has a realistic chance to score. Conversely, SJK has xG 1.18 vs xG against Ilves 1.09 and in the last 5 matches averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, so they can also create and convert chances. Both teams have low clean sheet percentages (seasonal CS 17% for each) and in the last 5 matches Ilves conceded 2.2 goals on average and SJK 2.0, which further increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering Ilves’s higher xG 1.92 vs SJK defensive xG 1.69, SJK’s 100% BTTS in the last 5 and the overall offensive/defensive picture, I tip BTTS = Yes.

I assign a high probability to Over 1.5 (90%) because both teams have a season rate of matches over 1.5 at 83% (Ilves 83%, SJK 83%), and the combined expected xG is about 2.94 (1.81 for Ilves vs 1.13 for SJK). Ilves generates 1.92 xG and averages 16.83 shots per game, while SJK has 1.18 xG and 8.83 shots; additionally SJK concedes 1.69 xG, which increases the hosts’ scoring chances. In the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of cases, Ilves averages 2.8 goals in the last 5 matches and SJK 1.6, which boosts the chance of more than 2 goals in the match (I estimate Over 2.5 at 60%). I consider Over 3.5 unlikely — seasonally Ilves have 17% such matches, SJK 33%, and the expected 2.94 goals is below the 3.5 threshold, hence Under 3.5 at 70%. Based on xG, shot volumes and recent form, the strongest signal is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ilves win at full-time (X/1). SJK drew at half-time in 50% of their matches, increasing the likelihood of an HT draw, while Ilves clearly outcreates them: xG 1.92 versus 1.18 and on average 16.83 shots per match versus SJK’s 8.83. After the break Ilves is considerably stronger — they average 1.33 goals in second halves and earn 1.83 points in second halves, whereas SJK only has 0.67 points in second halves; over the last five matches Ilves accumulated 2.4 points in the second half compared to SJK’s 0.6. Additionally, SJK concedes as many as six goals in the 46–60 minute interval while Ilves concedes only two, which favors a turnaround by the home side after the restart.