Independiente Medellín vs Cúcuta Deportivo: match statistics

Independiente Medellín are clear favourites, having collected 10 points from their last five matches by winning 3 games, while Cúcuta Deportivo have failed to win any and managed just 2 points. At home, the hosts average 1.58 goals with an xG of 1.75, take 16.5 shots per match and hit the target 5.42 times—figures that clearly surpass the visitors’ away averages of 0.92 goals and 10.77 shots. Cúcuta’s away defence concedes as many as 2.31 goals per match, allows opponents an xG of 1.81 and has kept a clean sheet in just 8% of games. Medellín have avoided defeat in 67% of their home matches, while Cúcuta have not recorded a single away win, losing 62% of such fixtures. In addition, the visitors have scored only 3 goals in their last five appearances, which significantly limits their chances of capitalising on any lapses from the hosts.

The seasonal BTTS rate stands at 67% for Independiente Medellín and 62% for Cúcuta Deportivo, well above the league average of 52%. The hosts concede an average of 1.44 goals per match, while their xG against reaches 1.67, giving the visitors a realistic route to scoring despite their weaker finishing. Cúcuta have a very low 8% clean-sheet rate and concede an average of 2.31 goals, while Medellín have scored 1.8 goals per match in their last five appearances. The visitors’ attacking form is a risk for the pick, as they have scored just 0.6 goals per game over the same period; however, their xG stands at 1.28, and Medellín have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in their last five matches. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes outcome is more likely, although its edge over the scenario in which Cúcuta fail to score remains moderate.

Cúcuta concede an average of 2.31 goals per match and allowed 10 goals in their last five fixtures, which clearly strengthens the projection of around 1.68 goals for the home side. At the same time, the visitors score only 0.92 goals per season and just 0.60 across their last five matches, despite Medellín allowing opponents an average of 1.67 xG. The total projection of 2.62 goals is closer to the 2.5 line than to 3.5, while Over 3.5 goals has landed in 33% of Medellín’s matches and 46% of Cúcuta’s fixtures this season. In addition, neither team averages more than 1.33 goals, and Cúcuta have not scored three goals in a single match in the current season data. Therefore, Under 3.5 has the clearest edge, with an estimated probability of 71%.

Independiente Medellín hold a clear statistical advantage: they score an average of 1.33 goals per match, while Cúcuta concede as many as 2.31, with the visitors having failed to win any match and losing 62% of their games. The signal for the home side to lead at the break is strong, as Medellín were ahead at half-time in 44% of their matches, compared with just 8% for Cúcuta; moreover, the hosts concede 0.56 goals per match before the break, versus 1.08 for the visitors. Recent form also favours the home side: they won 60% of their last five matches and scored an average of 1.8 goals, while Cúcuta failed to record a victory and managed just 0.6 goals per game. After half-time, the visitors remain largely ineffective, averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.23 conceded, which increases Medellín’s chances of maintaining a favourable result. The most likely scenario, therefore, is for the hosts to take the lead before the break and secure the win by full-time.