Indy Eleven vs Hartford Athletic: match statistics

Indy Eleven benefit significantly from home advantage: they win 75% of their home matches, score an average of 1.75 goals, and record 1.79 xG per game. Hartford Athletic have serious problems in attack away from home, averaging just 0.60 goals, 3 shots on target, and 1.15 xG, while failing to score in 70% of such matches. At home, the hosts average 15.13 shots compared with Hartford’s 10 away from home, while their conversion rate stands at 12%, compared with just 6% for the visitors. Although Indy’s overall form over their last five matches has been poor, with four defeats and only 3 goals scored, Hartford have also won just one of their last five fixtures. The visitors’ defence manages to keep a clean sheet in 50% of away matches, but they allow opponents 1.88 xG, which, combined with Indy’s attacking quality at home, points to a home win.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as Hartford Athletic saw both teams score in only 10% of their matches this season, compared with the league average of 55%. The visitors failed to score in 70% of their matches and average just 0.60 goals per game, while their average across the last five matches is only 0.80. Indy Eleven also have limited attacking efficiency, averaging 0.86 goals this season and 0.60 across their last five matches, in which BTTS occurred in just 20% of cases. Hartford have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while Indy have done so in 43%, further strengthening the scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Higher xG figures from the last five matches—1.54 for Indy and 1.58 for Hartford—offer some potential for goals, but their chance conversion rates of 7% and 6% respectively provide stronger support for BTTS - No.

Both teams have clear problems in front of goal: Indy scores an average of 0.86 goals per match, while Hartford manages just 0.60. Hartford has conceded only 0.70 goals on average and kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches, limiting the hosts’ potential despite their average xG of 1.66. In their last five matches, Indy scored just 3 goals and Hartford 4, with matches featuring at least three goals accounting for 20% and 40% of those samples, respectively. Throughout the season, Hartford has yet to play a match with at least four goals, while 100% of its games have finished Under 3.5 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore has the strongest support from both teams’ low attacking output and the visitors’ solid defensive record.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and after the final whistle, as Indy Eleven have drawn as many as 71% of their matches this season, compared with 30% for Hartford Athletic. The first halves are expected to be highly cautious: the hosts average just 0.14 goals in the opening period, have failed to score before the break in their last five matches, and both teams have kept a clean sheet at half-time in 71% and 70% of their respective matches. Indy do have greater creative potential, with an xG of 1.66 compared with Hartford’s 1.15 and 4.29 shots on target per match versus 3.00, but they convert just 7% of their attempts and average 0.86 goals. Hartford concede only 0.70 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their games, limiting the hosts’ chances of a turnaround after the break. The visitors are also inefficient, averaging 0.60 goals and failing to score in 70% of their matches, which is why a low-scoring draw remains the most logical outcome.