Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: match statistics
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Indy Eleven played Tampa Bay Rowdies in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: Nordjyske Bank Arena. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Indy Eleven: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Tampa Bay Rowdies: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Indy Eleven scores 1.22 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Tampa Bay Rowdies scores 1.70 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.71 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Indy Eleven 52%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 41%. Over 2.5: Indy Eleven 44%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 44%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Tampa Bay Rowdies has higher xG: 1.71 vs 1.60. Indy Eleven: 13.4 shots per match, Tampa Bay Rowdies: 15.1.
Match halves
Indy Eleven: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.78. Tampa Bay Rowdies: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Indy Eleven: 46-60 (8 goals). Tampa Bay Rowdies: 76-90+ (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.71 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-5. Average goals 2.80, BTTS 40%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Indy Eleven have a slight home advantage: they have won 57% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.64 goals, while Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 50% of their away games and averaged 1.21 goals. The hosts also create more chances, with a home xG of 1.75 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.48. However, Tampa have the stronger defensive record: away from home, they concede an average of 0.64 goals and keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, while Indy concede 0.93 goals per game at home. The visitors sit 1st in the table and have picked up 7 points from their last five matches, while the hosts, in 18th place, have managed just 4. Indy’s home scoring gives them a marginal edge in the forecast, but Tampa’s defence and their 36% away draw rate mean a share of the points is also a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest indicator that at least one team will fail to score is the clean-sheet record: Indy Eleven keep a clean sheet in 46% of matches, while Tampa Bay Rowdies do so in 57%. The teams’ historical scoring rates are 46% and 36%, respectively, both below the league average of 54%. In their last 5 matches, this scenario occurred just once for Indy and twice for Tampa, reinforcing the case for BTTS - No. The risk to this prediction is the hosts’ potent attack, averaging 2.23 goals with an xG of 1.96. However, the visitors concede just 0.64 goals on average, so I would not automatically back Indy to score. Tampa average 1.21 goals and fail to find the net in 21% of their matches, making it more likely that one side will finish the match without scoring.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this outcome occurred in 86% of Tampa Bay Rowdies matches, compared with just 54% of Indy Eleven matches. The visitors concede an average of just 0.64 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, which could limit the hosts’ output despite their average of 2.23 goals scored. Indy have scored only 1.0 goal per game across their last 5 matches, while both teams have averaged 1.0 goals conceded over that period. I estimate 2.45 total goals, so the 3.5 line offers a greater margin than 2.5 given the teams’ markedly different scoring profiles.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Tampa Bay keep a clean sheet in the first half in 79% of matches and concede an average of just 0.21 goals before the break. Although Indy have led at the break in 54% of their matches, the visitors’ solid defence increases the likelihood that the hosts will have to wait for a goal this time. After half-time, Indy hold the advantage with an average of 1.38 goals scored compared with Tampa Bay’s 0.64, while across full matches the hosts record an xG of 1.96 against their opponents’ 1.48. The X/1 pick is tempered by recent form: across their last five matches, Indy have averaged just 0.2 goals after the break, while Tampa Bay have averaged 1.0, so this scenario has only a slight edge over the alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Indy Eleven · 1.4 pts / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Indy Eleven · 1.7 goals / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 31% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Indy Eleven · 0.93 goals / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Indy Eleven scores in 67% of matches (18 of 27 matches), while Tampa Bay Rowdies keeps a clean sheet in 52% (14 of 27 matches).
Tampa Bay Rowdies scores in 85% of matches (23 of 27 matches), while Indy Eleven keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Indy Eleven
Over / Under - Tampa Bay Rowdies
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tampa Bay Rowdies is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Indy Eleven · 1.74 pts / match - Tampa Bay Rowdies
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Indy Eleven - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tampa Bay Rowdies - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Indy Eleven | Liga | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.44 | 2.71 | • 2.63 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 54% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 28% | ▲ 52% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 66% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): Indy Eleven 0 - 0 - 5 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Average goals 2.80, both teams scored in 40% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The USL Championship match finished Indy Eleven 1:3 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Indy Eleven won 0, Tampa Bay Rowdies won 5 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.80 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Indy Eleven score 1.22 goals per game on average and Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.70. The USL Championship average is 2.71 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Indy Eleven's matches and 41% of Tampa Bay Rowdies's.
What form are Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies in?
Over the last 5 games Indy Eleven have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.