İnter Bakı vs Qarabağ: match statistics
İnter Bakı vs Qarabağ: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
İnter Bakı played Qarabağ in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
İnter Bakı: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Qarabağ: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
İnter Bakı scores 0.96 and concedes 1.08 goals per match. Qarabağ scores 2.20 and concedes 0.72. League average: 2.61 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: İnter Bakı 46%, Qarabağ 40%. Over 2.5: İnter Bakı 42%, Qarabağ 44%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Qarabağ has higher xG: 2.04 vs 1.05. İnter Bakı: 8.0 shots per match, Qarabağ: 16.1.
Match halves
İnter Bakı: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.54. Qarabağ: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 1.28.
Goals by minute
İnter Bakı: 76-90+ (6 goals). Qarabağ: 76-90+ (16 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.61 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Qarabağ is the clear favorite: the visitors have scored 55 goals this season and average 2.09 goals on the road, while İnter Bakı has 25 goals overall and averages 1.0 goal at home. In the last 5 matches Qarabağ scored 19 goals (3.8 per match) and averages 2.0 points per game, whereas İnter has only 3 goals in five matches (0.6 per match) and 1.0 point per game. Quality of chances also favors the visitors: Qarabağ averages 15.36 shots and 5.73 on target away with xG 1.94, versus 7.92 shots and 3 on target at home with xG 1.05 for İnter. Defensively the visitors are tighter — Qarabağ concedes 0.91 goals away, while İnter concedes 1.46 at home; the hosts have a home goal difference of -6, whereas Qarabağ has +13 on the road. Considering the advantage in efficiency, xG and possession (64% vs 43%), I estimate a 65% probability of a visitors' win, 20% for a draw and 15% for a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Inter Baki at home has only 21% of matches with both teams scoring and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of games, with an average goals conceded of 0.57 and xG against 0.82, which strongly favors No BTTS. Qarabağ away, however, has 64% of matches with BTTS and scored 19 goals in the last 5 matches (3.8 per match) with a recent xG_for of 2.52, showing strong attacking form. Seasonal attacking metrics suggest the hosts have the advantage in game control: Inter’s home xG_for is 2.13 with 6.21 shots on target and a seasonal goals average of 2.29, while Qarabağ away has xG_for 1.94 and 5.73 shots on target, which limits the visitors’ realistic chances. Although Qarabağ scored 55 goals this season versus Inter’s 25, Inter’s high clean sheet percentage (64%) and the low seasonal BTTS for the hosts (21%) markedly reduce the probability of both teams scoring. Balancing the visitors’ attacking form against the hosts’ defensive stability, I assess No BTTS at 65% and BTTS at 35%, therefore the best pick is 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals were calculated from xG and opponent averages: home 1.61 = (home xG 2.13 + xG conceded to away 1.09) / 2, away 1.38 = (away xG 1.94 + xG conceded to home 0.82) / 2, total 2.99. A Poisson model with λ=2.99 implies roughly an 80% chance of Over 1.5 goals (since probability of 0 or 1 goal ≈ 20%), about 57% for Over 2.5 (sum of probabilities 0–2 ≈ 43%) and around 35% for Over 3.5. Seasonal stats reinforce this picture: home teams have Over 1.5 in 71% of home matches, away teams in 82%, and the away side scored 19 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 3.8 per game) with an average xG of 2.52 in that period. At the same time homes have 64% clean sheets at home and concede only 0.57 goals per home match on average seasonally, which limits the likelihood of very high-scoring outcomes (season Over 3.5: 29% homes, 27% aways). As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over, line 1.5) based on the expected 2.99 goals and historical 71–82% frequency of Over 1.5; Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (~57%), and Over 3.5 is too risky (~35%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Qarabağ appears to be the favourite: they have a 73% win rate this season versus İnter Bakı’s 64% and average 2.27 points per match compared to 2.14. In the last five fixtures the visitors won 3 of 5 (60%) and led at the break in 60% of games, scoring an average of 2.0 goals by halftime versus only 0.2 for the hosts. Although İnter Bakı have a higher seasonal xG (2.13 vs 1.94) and statistically defend better in the first half (conceding on average 0.21 goals HT), Qarabağ’s current form and their high first-half efficiency favour the visitors. Therefore the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT 2/2 ~30%), with HT X/FT 2 (~20%) a realistic alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| İnter Bakı | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Qarabağ is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - İnter Bakı · 2 pts / match - Qarabağ
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 129% better for: goals scored per match.
0.96 goals / match - İnter Bakı · 2.2 goals / match - Qarabağ
Qarabağ is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.08 goals / match - İnter Bakı · 0.72 goals / match - Qarabağ
İnter Bakı scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 48% (12 of 25 matches).
Qarabağ scores in 84% of matches (21 of 25 matches), while İnter Bakı keeps a clean sheet in 42% (11 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - İnter Bakı
Over / Under - Qarabağ
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.23 pts / match - İnter Bakı · 1.68 pts / match - Qarabağ
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
İnter Bakı - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +7 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (16 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
İnter Bakı
Qarabağ
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| İnter Bakı | Liga | Qarabağ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.04 | 2.61 | ▲ 2.92 |
| Both teams scored | • 46% | 45% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 42% | 47% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 32% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 46% | 65% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | ▲ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): İnter Bakı 0 - 1 - 1 Qarabağ. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of İnter Bakı vs Qarabağ?
The Premyer Liqası match finished İnter Bakı 0:0 Qarabağ. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between İnter Bakı and Qarabağ?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches İnter Bakı won 0, Qarabağ won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before İnter Bakı vs Qarabağ?
İnter Bakı score 0.96 goals per game on average and Qarabağ 2.20. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.61 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 46% of İnter Bakı's matches and 40% of Qarabağ's.
What form are İnter Bakı and Qarabağ in?
Over the last 5 games İnter Bakı have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Qarabağ 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for İnter Bakı vs Qarabağ?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.