Inter Turku vs Ilves: match statistics

Inter Turku is the clear favorite: in the last 5 matches the home side has 4 wins and 1 draw (form 'wwwwd'), while Ilves has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses ('wwdll'). Both teams scored 9 goals in their last five fixtures, but Inter conceded only 3 goals (0.6 per game) versus 9 conceded by Ilves (1.8 per game), giving the hosts a defensive edge. At home Inter averages 13 shots and 5 shots on target per match, possesses 67% possession and records average xG 1.7 with xG against 0.29, whereas Ilves’ away data shows average shots and xG listed as 0, indicating limited offensive output on the road. Inter earns 2.6 points per game over the last 5 matches compared to Ilves’ 1.4, and clean sheet stats show 100% for Inter at home versus 0% for Ilves away, hence the home advantage and a pick for an Inter win.

In the last 5 matches Inter Turku averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded (9 scored, 3 conceded), while Ilves averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded (9 scored, 9 conceded). BTTS rate in the last 5 matches is 40% for Inter and 80% for Ilves, giving a simple average of 60% and indicating Ilves appears more often in Goal/Goal games. xG confirms similar offensive strengths: recent xG per match is 1.44 for Inter versus 1.35 for Ilves, while xG against is 0.84 for Inter versus 1.40 for Ilves, meaning Ilves creates and concedes more chances. Ambiguity is introduced by Inter’s strong home form (wwwwd) and only 0.6 goals conceded in the last 5, which reduces the likelihood of a clean sheet for the home side. Considering these figures and the league average BTTS of 50%, I assign 62% probability to BTTS - Yes and 38% to No Goal.

Based on average xG from the last 5 matches: Inter has 1.44 xG per game, Ilves 1.35, and xG against is 0.84 (Inter) and 1.40 (Ilves), yielding expected goals of 1.42 for Inter and 1.10 for Ilves (total 2.52). Both teams have scored 9 goals in the last 5 fixtures (1.8 per game each), with Ilves conceding 9 goals (1.8 per game) and Inter only 3 (0.6 per game), which increases the likelihood of goals in the match. A Poisson model with a total of 2.52 produces probabilities of over 1.5 goals at ~72%, over 2.5 at ~46% and over 3.5 at ~24%. Seasonal and recent indicators further support the over: Inter has 100% of season matches above 1.5, and Ilves has 80% of last 5 matches above 2.5 and 80% BTTS. Therefore I recommend the “over” on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (72% chance), noting a moderate probability for over 2.5 (46%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1): in the last 5 matches Inter Turku have won 80% of games (4 of 5) and been level at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5). Although seasonally the hosts concede on average 3.0 goals per game and 2.0 goals by half-time, over the past 5 outings their defense has improved to an average of 0.6 goals conceded. Offensively Inter averages 14 shots per game of which 5 are on target and has an xG of 1.74 versus opponents’ xG of 1.53, which suggests an advantage in chance creation after the break. The time distribution supports this picture: the hosts scored 1 goal in the 76–90 minute interval and conceded mainly before half-time (1 goal in 0–15 and 1 goal in 31–45 minutes). Additionally, in the provided stats the visitors’ xG and shot counts are 0.0, so I base the assessment on Inter’s improving form and goal distribution; therefore I assign X/1 a 36% probability, with X/X at 18% and 1/1 at 12% as next options.