İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa: match statistics

İstanbul Başakşehir have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 17 shots and 5 on target with an xG of 1.63, while Kasımpaşa manage just 6 shots, 1 on target and an xG of 0.56 away from home. The hosts won their only home match so far 2-0 and kept a clean sheet, while their opponents also won their only away fixture without conceding, so the small sample size calls for caution. Crucially, however, Kasımpaşa’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.83 per away match, significantly higher than the 0.94 xG conceded by Başakşehir at home. The visitors have been marginally more effective across their last five matches, averaging 1.6 points per game compared with 1.4 for the hosts, but their attacking potential away from home appears too limited. Başakşehir’s superior chance quality and greater control of possession—51% on average compared with Kasımpaşa’s 25% away from home—support a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Kasımpaşa’s limited attacking potential away from home: they average 1.0 goal, create just 0.56 xG and record only 1 shot on target per match. The visitors have yet to concede away from home, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of such matches, although their average xG allowed is 1.83, meaning Başakşehir should have opportunities to score. In their last five matches, the hosts have averaged 1.2 goals, with 1.61 xG, giving them a clearly stronger basis for finding the net than their opponents. On the other hand, Başakşehir conceded 1.4 goals per match during this run, while both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five appearances, so an away goal remains a realistic possibility. However, the league BTTS rate is only 39%, and the combination of Kasımpaşa’s weak chance creation and their solid defensive record so far slightly favours a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The projection of 2.44 goals is supported by Başakşehir’s strong recent chance creation, with their five-match average xG standing at 1.61, compared with the 1.56 xG conceded on average by Kasımpaşa. The visitors have scored 1.2 goals per match during this period, but their xG is only 0.94, while the hosts have allowed opponents 1.38 xG, limiting expectations for their attack to around one goal. In the last five matches, at least three goals were scored in 40% of the hosts’ games and just 20% of the visitors’ games, compared with a league average of 39%. Additionally, both teams have so far played exclusively matches with fewer than 3.5 goals, making Under 3.5 the strongest selection despite the moderate chance of surpassing the 1.5-goal line.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an İstanbul Başakşehir win, as the hosts have averaged 0.75 goals scored and only 0.50 conceded before the break across their last five matches. Kasımpaşa also tend to play cautiously in the first half: they have been level at half-time in 40% of their recent matches, with an average total of 1.4 goals scored before the break. After the interval, Başakşehir show the stronger signal to take control of the match, averaging 0.5 goals and winning the second half in 50% of their last five appearances, compared with just 20% for the visitors. The hosts also create more shots on target, averaging four compared with Kasımpaşa’s one, which increases their chances of scoring the decisive goal after half-time.