Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split: match statistics
Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Istra 1961 played Hajduk Split in Prva HNL (Croatia). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Istra 1961: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Hajduk Split: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Istra 1961 scores 1.22 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Hajduk Split scores 1.67 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Istra 1961 59%, Hajduk Split 41%. Over 2.5: Istra 1961 56%, Hajduk Split 44%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Hajduk Split has higher xG: 1.85 vs 1.28. Istra 1961: 10.0 shots per match, Hajduk Split: 15.4.
Match halves
Istra 1961: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.63. Hajduk Split: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.96.
Goals by minute
Istra 1961: 0-15 (7 goals). Hajduk Split: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Prva HNL: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors - Hajduk Split - based on superior metrics: 45 goals scored this season versus Istra’s 33 and higher average xG 1.80 versus 1.40. Hajduk generates significantly more chances and shots on target: on average 15.08 shots and 5.00 on target per away match versus the hosts’ 11.23 shots and 3.62 on target, with similar conversion rates of 11% vs 10%. Defensively the visitors also perform better - they concede 0.92 goals per away match and keep a clean sheet in 46% of away games, while Istra concedes 1.23 goals at home and has only 15% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Hajduk scored 12 goals versus Istra’s 4, and the points per game in that period are 1.4 for Hajduk and 1.2 for Istra, indicating a scoring advantage for the visitors. Considering the xG advantage (1.80 vs 1.40), shot volume and superior defense, I assess the probability of a Hajduk win at 62%, a draw at 20% and a home win at 18%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 62% (No: 38%). The primary support comes from Hajduk’s form: in the last 5 matches they scored 12 goals (avg. 2.4) and have xG_for of 2.19 across those five games, and their away matches ended BTTS in 80% of cases, strongly indicating Hajduk both scores and concedes. Istra in the last 5 fixtures has only 4 goals (0.8 avg.) and has xG_for 1.16 vs xG_against 1.87 in that period, showing they create chances but concede relatively often; their BTTS in the last 5 is 20%. Looking at season-long metrics both teams have similar season xG (Istra 1.9 vs Hajduk 1.8), a comparable number of shots (Istra 15.64 vs Hajduk 15.08; shots on target 6.0 vs 5.0), and season BTTS rates of 50% for Istra and 31% for Hajduk, while the league average BTTS is 55%. Considering Hajduk’s strong offense in the last 5 (2.4 goals and xG 2.19) and Istra’s susceptibility to shots and xG against (1.87), I assess ‘Yes’ as the superior bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and defensive analysis indicate Istra creates xG 1.90, Hajduk 1.80, while xG against are 1.12 (Istra) and 1.23 (Hajduk); these translate to an expected 1.57 goals for the home side and 1.46 for the away side (total 3.03). Season metrics show Over 1.5 in 93% of Istra’s matches and 77% of Hajduk’s matches, and the league average goals is 2.73, so with an expected 3.03 goals the Poisson model yields roughly an 80% chance of Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line seasonal Overs are 50% (Istra) and 38% (Hajduk), but Hajduk’s last 5 matches average 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5 matches) with 80% Over2.5, which raises the Over 2.5 probability to about 58% in our model. At the 3.5 line Poisson with λ=3.03 estimates Over at ~36%, so Under 3.5 is favored (~64%). Given the high xG for both teams, the seasonal 93%/77% Over1.5 and the calculated ~80% probability, I recommend betting Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I project 1/1 as the most likely scenario: the home team led at the break in 43% of matches and won the full match in 64% of cases, compared with 38% of halftime leads and 54% of wins for the visitors, which supports Istra maintaining their lead. Home xG is 1.90 versus Hajduk’s 1.80, and the hosts average 6 shots on target versus 5 for the opponents — indicating more goal-scoring opportunities for Istra. At halftime the home side averages 0.71 goals versus 0.69 for the visitors, and in 79% of Istra’s matches at least one goal is scored by halftime (77% for the visitors), so a goalless first half is less likely. However, note that in the last five matches Hajduk led at the break in 60% of games, which introduces a risk of an early visitor lead and warrants moderate weight for turnaround scenarios.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Istra 1961 | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hajduk Split is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Istra 1961 · 2 pts / match - Hajduk Split
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hajduk Split is 37% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Istra 1961 · 1.67 goals / match - Hajduk Split
Hajduk Split is 47% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.37 goals / match - Istra 1961 · 0.93 goals / match - Hajduk Split
Istra 1961 scores in 70% of matches (19 of 27 matches), while Hajduk Split keeps a clean sheet in 44% (12 of 27 matches).
Hajduk Split scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Istra 1961 keeps a clean sheet in 15% (4 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Istra 1961
Over / Under - Hajduk Split
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hajduk Split is 75% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.89 pts / match - Istra 1961 · 1.56 pts / match - Hajduk Split
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Istra 1961 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hajduk Split - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Istra 1961
Hajduk Split
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Prva HNL).
Teams vs league
| Istra 1961 | Liga | Hajduk Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.59 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 59% | 55% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 56% | 51% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 15% | 26% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 78% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | • 78% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Istra 1961 1 - 0 - 2 Hajduk Split. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?
The Prva HNL match finished Istra 1961 1:3 Hajduk Split. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Istra 1961 and Hajduk Split?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Istra 1961 won 1, Hajduk Split won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?
Istra 1961 score 1.22 goals per game on average and Hajduk Split 1.67. The Prva HNL average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Istra 1961's matches and 41% of Hajduk Split's.
What form are Istra 1961 and Hajduk Split in?
Over the last 5 games Istra 1961 have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Hajduk Split 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split?
The statistical background for Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.