Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn: match statistics

Jagiellonia II are favorites: they average 2.8 goals per match at home, while Troszyn score 1.0 and concede 2.2 goals away. The hosts average 6 shots on target at home, compared with their opponents’ 3.75 away, and their shot conversion rate is 21% versus 11% for the visitors. The gap in the quality of chances created is smaller than the difference in goals scored—the average xG figures are 1.70 and 1.32, respectively—so a closely contested match cannot be ruled out. Jagiellonia have scored 13 goals but conceded 11 in their last five matches, giving Troszyn a chance to find the net. Despite this defensive weakness, the hosts’ 40% home win rate compared with the visitors’ 60% away loss rate points to a Jagiellonia II victory.

BTTS has landed in 100% of Jagiellonia II’s matches to date and 60% of Troszyn’s, rising to 100% and 80% respectively across their last 5 appearances. Both sides concede regularly, averaging 2.6 and 2.2 goals conceded per match this season, which increases the likelihood of them finding the net against each other. Jagiellonia II score an average of 1.4 goals against an xG of 1.41, while Troszyn average 1.0 goal against an xG of 1.32, giving the visitors the potential to exploit the hosts’ defensive weaknesses. Their scoring averages have risen to 2.6 and 1.6 goals over their last 5 matches, further supporting BTTS - Yes. The risk to the pick is that Troszyn have failed to score in 20% of their matches; however, the overall data more clearly favours BTTS - Yes.

Jagiellonia II matches average 4.0 goals, while Troszyn matches average 3.2, supporting a total of at least two goals. Over their last 5 matches, those averages were 4.8 and 3.4 goals respectively, so the trend has also continued in more recent results. The hosts score an average of 1.4 goals and concede 2.6, while the visitors score 1.0 and concede 2.2; both defences allow opponents chances to score. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of Jagiellonia II matches and 80% of Troszyn matches, making it a stronger pick than Over 2.5 goals, which has landed in 60% and 40% of their matches respectively.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: Jagiellonia II were level at the break in all of their last five matches, although they went into half-time trailing in four of their five home games. The case for a home win after the break is supported by their average of 1.8 second-half goals across their last five matches, compared with Troszyn’s 0.8. Jagiellonia II also average 13.33 shots per match against the visitors’ 9.5, while their xG is 1.41 compared with their opponents’ 1.32, pointing to a slightly greater attacking threat. The X/1 pick remains uncertain, however: the hosts have not won any of the five home matches included in the statistics, drawing three of them, so a draw at both half-time and full-time is a significant alternative.