JäPS vs MP: match statistics

JäPS have a clear home advantage: they have won 63% of their home matches, keeping a clean sheet in 63% of them, while MP win just 22% of their away games and lose 67%. The hosts concede an average of 1.00 goal per home match, while MP score only 0.78 goals away from home, pointing to limited chances for the visitors. JäPS also create slightly higher-quality opportunities, with an average xG of 1.32 compared to MP’s 1.25, while the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 1.51. The teams’ recent form is similar, with JäPS winning 3 of their last 5 matches and MP recording 2 wins and 2 draws; however, the hosts have conceded only 5 goals during this period, compared with MP’s 9. JäPS’ low average of 2.00 total goals in home matches suggests a controlled, low-scoring home victory.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: JäPS recorded BTTS in 63% of matches, while MP did so in 44%, compared with a league average of 46%. The hosts score 1.50 goals per home game, while MP concede 1.33 on the road, giving JäPS solid grounds to find the net. MP average only 0.78 goals scored, but JäPS’s defence concedes an average of 1.38, while the xG figures stand at 1.25 for MP and 1.50 against JäPS. The form across the last five matches clearly supports the visitors, who recorded BTTS in 100% of games and both scored and conceded 1.8 goals per match. The risk comes from JäPS recording BTTS in only 20% of their last five appearances, so the edge for BTTS - Yes is limited, but it remains the most likely outcome.

JäPS score an average of 1.50 goals at home, while MP concede only 1.33 goals away, limiting the hosts’ projection to approximately 1.35 goals. The visitors score just 0.78 goals per match this season, although their last five games produced an average of 1.80 goals scored; JäPS’s defence concedes an average of 1.38 goals. The xG lines are relatively high, with the hosts creating chances worth 1.34 xG and MP 1.25 xG, but the visitors’ poor 8% shooting efficiency reduces the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. Under 3.5 goals landed in 62% of JäPS matches and as many as 78% of MP matches, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 38% and 22% of cases, respectively. The projected total of 2.47 goals and the aligned profiles of both teams provide a clear edge for the Under 3.5 goals option.

JäPS have a clear edge in their season results: they average 1.50 goals per match compared with MP’s 0.78, and have won 50% of their games, while their opponents have recorded just 22% victories. The hosts were leading at the break in 6 of 8 matches, or 75% of the time, whereas MP drew as many as 7 of their 9 first halves and scored only 0.22 goals per match before half-time. JäPS are particularly dangerous before the break, averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded, while MP, despite keeping a clean sheet in 78% of first halves, have shown very limited attacking output. After the interval, the visitors concede an average of 1.11 goals, while their seasonal defeat rate stands at a substantial 67%, further supporting the scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead until full-time. MP’s last five matches have been better, but JäPS’s superior efficiency, home points record and first-half data still provide the strongest support for the 1/1 outcome.