JFK Ventspils vs Super Nova II: match statistics

Super Nova II sit 7th, while JFK Ventspils are 12th, and over the course of the season the visitors have collected 20 points compared with the hosts’ 11. However, the away side create significantly more danger on the road: they average 8 shots and 4.43 shots on target per match, compared with 6 and 2.57 for JFK, while also scoring 1.43 goals per game against the hosts’ 0.57. The Ventspils side have a serious problem with consistency in front of goal, having failed to score in 57% of their home matches and won none of them, losing 71%. The visitors are not entirely reliable defensively either, conceding an average of 1.86 goals away from home with an xG against of 1.94, giving the hosts an opportunity to convert their own xG of 1.14. Both teams have collected 5 points from their last five matches, while as many as 57% of Super Nova II’s away fixtures have ended in draws, making a stalemate the most likely outcome.

BTTS - Yes is primarily supported by current form, as both teams produced this outcome in 80% of their last 5 matches. During this period, JFK Ventspils averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Super Nova II scored 1.2 and conceded 1.6 goals per match. The visitors have not kept a clean sheet once this season, while their average of 1.86 goals conceded and 1.94 xG against clearly increase the hosts’ chances of scoring. At the same time, Super Nova II have a season BTTS rate as high as 86%, compared with 50% for JFK Ventspils, while the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.47. Despite the visitors’ lower attacking xG over their last five appearances, at 0.69, their season average of 4.43 shots on target and the defensive weakness of both sides point slightly more strongly towards a goal for each team.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as at least 2 goals were scored in 63% of JFK Ventspils matches and in all Super Nova II fixtures. The hosts average 1.38 goals per match, while the visitors average 1.43, with Super Nova II conceding as many as 1.86 goals per game. The chance-quality model projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors, for a combined total of 2.67. In their last 5 matches, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, while both sides scored in 80% of each team’s matches. At the same time, Under 3.5 goals remains relatively likely, having occurred in 62% of JFK Ventspils matches and 86% of Super Nova II fixtures; however, the 1.5 line offers a clearly stronger safety margin.

JFK Ventspils have a clearly stronger first-half profile: they have led at the break in 50% of matches, while Super Nova II have been trailing after 45 minutes in 29%. The hosts average 0.88 goals scored before half-time and concede only 0.38, whereas the visitors score just 0.43 goals during this period while conceding 1.00. In their last five matches, Ventspils have led at the break in 60% of cases and have not been trailing in any of them, strengthening the scenario of an early home advantage. Over the full 90 minutes, the hosts win 50% of their matches, compared with just 14% victories for Super Nova II, whose defence concedes an average of 1.86 goals and 1.94 xG. The risk of a second-half equaliser remains significant, as the visitors draw as many as 57% of their matches, but the most likely individual HT/FT outcome remains Ventspils leading at half-time and securing the full-time win.