Junior vs Atlético Nacional: match statistics
The match promises to be very evenly contested. At home, Junior displays solid form with a 50% win rate and a ball possession advantage of 62%, indicating game control. Atlético Nacional has a better overall season record (6 wins), but they perform much worse on the road with a 50% loss rate and zero draws, suggesting instability. The key factor is the similar average of goals scored and conceded by both teams, along with comparable xG values, confirming evenly matched sides. Recent form over the last five matches also fails to point out a clear favorite - Junior averages 1.4 points per game, while Nacional averages 1.8, albeit with higher result volatility. Given the hosts' possession advantage and the visitors' away instability, a draw seems the most likely scenario, with a slight edge for the home side.
Junior vs Atlético Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Junior played Atlético Nacional in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 11 March 2026. Final score: 0:4.
Current form
Junior: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Atlético Nacional: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Junior scores 1.67 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Atlético Nacional scores 2.13 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.57 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Junior 67%, Atlético Nacional 50%. Over 2.5: Junior 67%, Atlético Nacional 75%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Nacional has higher xG: 1.78 vs 1.61. Junior: 15.2 shots per match, Atlético Nacional: 16.9.
Match halves
Junior: half-time lead 56%, second-half goals 0.67. Atlético Nacional: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 1.50.
Goals by minute
Junior: 31-45+ (4 goals). Atlético Nacional: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.57 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be very evenly contested. At home, Junior displays solid form with a 50% win rate and a ball possession advantage of 62%, indicating game control. Atlético Nacional has a better overall season record (6 wins), but they perform much worse on the road with a 50% loss rate and zero draws, suggesting instability. The key factor is the similar average of goals scored and conceded by both teams, along with comparable xG values, confirming evenly matched sides. Recent form over the last five matches also fails to point out a clear favorite - Junior averages 1.4 points per game, while Nacional averages 1.8, albeit with higher result volatility. Given the hosts' possession advantage and the visitors' away instability, a draw seems the most likely scenario, with a slight edge for the home side.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Junior | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Nacional is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Junior · 1.8 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Nacional is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - Junior · 2.13 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Atlético Nacional is 63% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Junior · 0.75 goals / match - Atlético Nacional
Junior scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Atlético Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
Atlético Nacional scores in 75% of matches (6 of 8 matches), while Junior keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Junior
Over / Under - Atlético Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Junior is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.89 pts / match - Junior · 1.5 pts / match - Atlético Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Junior - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 56% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atlético Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Junior
Atlético Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Junior | Liga | Atlético Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.89 | 2.57 | ▲ 2.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 51% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 26% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 67% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 79% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Junior 3 - 1 - 0 Atlético Nacional. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Junior vs Atlético Nacional?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Junior 0:4 Atlético Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Junior and Atlético Nacional?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Junior won 3, Atlético Nacional won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Junior vs Atlético Nacional?
Junior score 1.67 goals per game on average and Atlético Nacional 2.13. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Junior's matches and 50% of Atlético Nacional's.
What form are Junior and Atlético Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Junior have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Atlético Nacional 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Junior vs Atlético Nacional?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Junior vs Atlético Nacional: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.