Junior vs Once Caldas: match statistics

Junior head into this match on a very poor run: they have failed to win any of their last 5 games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9. Over the same period, Once Caldas earned 8 points from 2 wins and 2 draws, scoring 11 goals while conceding just 5. At home, the hosts create slightly more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.52 compared with the opponents’ 1.48, but they fail to score in as many as 29% of such matches, whereas the visitors struggle offensively in only 8% of away fixtures. Junior have the advantage in possession at 56% and average 1.57 goals scored at home, yet Once Caldas lose just 8% of their away matches. Crucially, the visitors have an exceptionally high 75% draw rate on the road, making a share of the points the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS occurred in 69% of Junior’s matches this season and as many as 83% of Once Caldas’ matches, well above the league average of 53%. Both defenses rarely keep a clean sheet: Junior does so in 15% of matches, while Once Caldas does so in 17%, with their opponents regularly finding the back of the net. In their last five matches, Junior conceded an average of 1.8 goals, while Once Caldas scored 2.2 goals per game, strongly supporting the visitors’ goal expectation. Junior’s current finishing is weaker, averaging 1.2 goals across five matches, but its xG stands at 1.54, while Once Caldas allows an average of 1.42 xG, meaning the hosts should create enough chances. The recent BTTS trend is also 60% for both sides, making the scenario in which each team scores at least once more likely. BTTS - Yes is therefore the preferred selection; BTTS - No would mean that at least one team fails to score, not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

Junior average 1.92 goals per match this season, while Once Caldas score 1.33, with both teams regularly allowing opponents to create chances: 1.23 and 1.17 goals conceded, respectively. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures of 1.81 for Junior and 1.48 for Once Caldas, while the home and away sides average as many as 6.31 and 5.08 shots on target. In their last five matches, Once Caldas scored 11 goals, whereas Junior conceded 9, with at least three goals scored in 60% of matches across both runs. However, the Over 1.5 goals line offers the strongest edge, having landed in 77% of Junior’s matches and 92% of Once Caldas’ games, while both teams have kept clean sheets in only 15% and 17% of their appearances.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and a Once Caldas victory at full-time, as the visitors were level at the break in 8 of their 12 matches, or 67%, compared with just 6 of Junior’s 13 matches, or 46%. The opening phase should be evenly balanced: Junior average 0.92 goals scored and 0.46 conceded before half-time, while Once Caldas score 0.50 and also concede 0.50 goals. However, current form clearly favours the visitors, who have averaged 2.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded and 1.6 points per match over their last five games, whereas Junior have recorded 1.2 goals scored, 1.8 conceded and just 0.4 points per match. After the break, Once Caldas have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded in their last five appearances, while Junior have scored only 0.4 and conceded 1.2, reinforcing the scenario of the visitors breaking the deadlock in the second half.