KA vs Breidablik: match statistics

Breidablik sit 4th, while KA are 12th, but both teams are in very poor current form: the hosts have failed to win any of their last 5 matches (2 draws and 3 defeats), while the visitors have recorded 1 draw and 4 defeats over the same period. KA lose as many as 70% of their home matches and concede an average of 2.0 goals, but Breidablik have also been unconvincing away from home, drawing 50% of their matches and winning only 20%. The visitors hold a slight attacking edge, averaging 1.7 goals away from home compared with KA’s 1.4 at home, while their xG stands at 1.66 versus 1.57 for the hosts. Both defences allow opponents high-quality chances, with average xG against figures of 1.81 for KA and 2.02 for Breidablik, which favours goals at both ends. Similar match metrics, poor current form and Breidablik’s exceptionally high away-draw rate make a draw the most likely outcome.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, with KA recording BTTS in 64% of matches and Breidablik in 70%, compared with a league average of 71%. KA score an average of 2.27 goals at home but concede 1.91, while Breidablik score 1.70 goals per match and allow opponents 1.80. The quality-of-chances data also points to an open game: the hosts have an xG of 1.85 and a conceded xG of 1.82, while the visitors create an average of 1.66 xG and their opponents achieve as much as 2.02 xG against them. Across their last five appearances, both teams have conceded particularly heavily, averaging 3.0 and 2.6 goals per match respectively, while BTTS landed 60% of the time for each side. The risk to the pick is that Breidablik failed to score in 30% of matches; however, KA’s poor recent defensive form and 15 goals conceded in five games clearly increase the likelihood of the visitors finding the net this time.

KA average 2.27 goals at home, while Breidablik concede 1.80 goals away, which clearly supports an attacking scenario for the hosts. Breidablik score an average of 1.70 goals, while KA allow opponents 1.91 goals per match, so the visitors should also pose a significant threat. In their last five matches, both teams have had very weak defenses: KA conceded 3.0 goals per match and Breidablik 2.6, with combined against-xG figures of 2.29 and 2.12, respectively. Over 1.5 goals were scored in 82% of KA matches and 70% of Breidablik matches, making Over 1.5 the most probable pick; additionally, the league records a high average of 3.89 goals per match.

KA have the clearer potential to win at home: they score an average of 2.27 goals per match, while Breidablik concede 1.80 away from home, and the hosts’ xG stands at 1.85 compared with the 2.02 xG allowed by their opponents. The hosts have won their matches more frequently (55% versus 20%) and also register more shots on target, averaging 5.64 compared with Breidablik’s 4.60. After the break, KA score 1.45 goals per match and win the second half in 55% of cases, whereas the visitors score just 0.80 goals during this period. Although both teams have been in poor recent form and KA have led at the break in only 36% of their matches, Breidablik were trailing at half-time in 80% of their last five games. The most likely scenario therefore remains an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with KA taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle, although the high average of 4.18 goals in the hosts’ matches increases the risk of a turnaround.