KA vs FH: match statistics

KA have slightly stronger arguments at home: they average 1.38 goals scored with an xG of 1.58, while FH allow opponents an xG of 2.20 away from home and concede as many as 2.50 goals per match. The hosts also register more shots, averaging 14.63 compared with 11.88, and hit the target more accurately, with 5 shots on target per game versus FH’s 4.13. However, KA’s home advantage is weakened by their form over the last five matches, during which they scored just 8 goals and won only once, while FH remain unbeaten in that period with 1 win and 4 draws. The visitors have also clearly improved their defensive organisation, conceding just 3 goals in their last five outings, making a draw a realistic scenario. Nevertheless, FH’s poor finishing over the season as a whole, with 20 goals in 16 matches, and their 13% away win rate marginally favour KA.

Both teams have recorded an identical share of matches with goals scored by both sides this season, at 63%, while the league average is even higher at 72%. KA creates plenty of chances at home, with an average xG of 2.00, along with 15.5 shots and 5.75 shots on target per match, whereas FH concedes as many as 2.50 goals per away game on average. The visitors also have attacking arguments, as their current xG from the last five matches stands at 2.05, while KA’s defense allowed opponents 2.13 xG and conceded an average of 2.0 goals over the same period. The main risk to the tip is FH’s defensive improvement: they have conceded only 3 goals in their last five matches. However, their season-long clean-sheet rate of just 13% still suggests that KA should find a way to score. A scenario in which both teams score is therefore marginally more likely, although the visitors’ defensive form reduces confidence in BTTS - Yes.

KA averages 2.00 xG per match, while FH allows opponents 2.20 xG and concedes an average of 2.50 goals, clearly favoring goals for the home side. Both teams went over 1.5 total goals in 75% and 88% of their matches, respectively, while the league average is as high as 3.94 goals. In KA’s last five matches, games averaged 3.60 goals, as they scored 8 and conceded 10. FH has been more solid defensively recently, conceding only 3 goals in five appearances, but still generates 2.05 xG, while KA allows opponents 2.13 xG. Over 1.5 goals is the safest choice, as the 3.40-goal projection provides by far the largest margin over the line.

KA have a clear first-half advantage: they were leading at the break in 50% of matches, while FH were trailing after 45 minutes in 63% of games. The hosts score an average of 1.00 goals before half-time and concede only 0.38, whereas FH score 0.63 goals during this period while conceding as many as 1.63, strongly supporting the scenario of a KA lead at the break. After the interval, however, the picture is less favourable for the hosts, who score just 0.25 goals per match and lose the second half in 63% of cases. FH have recently been difficult to beat, recording four draws in their last five matches without suffering a defeat, while also conceding only 0.6 goals per game during this period. The most likely outcome is therefore a scenario in which KA exploit their opponents' early weakness, but FH complete a turnaround and force a draw at full-time.