Kairat vs Tobol: match statistics
Kairat vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kairat played Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 13 September 2026. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
Kairat: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match. Tobol: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kairat scores 2.08 and concedes 0.63 goals per match. Tobol scores 1.21 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.48 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kairat 50%, Tobol 54%. Over 2.5: Kairat 58%, Tobol 46%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Kairat has higher xG: 1.73 vs 1.53. Kairat: 15.6 shots per match, Tobol: 13.2.
Match halves
Kairat: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 1.00. Tobol: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Kairat: 76-90+ (12 goals). Tobol: 16-30 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.48 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Kairat are very strong at home: they have won 70% of their matches, remain unbeaten, and average 2.3 goals per game while conceding just 0.5. Tobol win only 8% of their away matches, lose 77%, and average just 0.62 goals per game. The hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 16.9 shots and 6.8 on target, compared with Tobol’s 11.54 attempts and 3.31 shots on target. The difference in chance quality is reflected in the xG figures: Kairat record 1.88 at home, while Tobol allow opponents 1.76 xG away from home. Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Kairat’s defensive superiority and home advantage strongly point to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Kairat has a high seasonal BTTS rate of 64%, but both teams scored in only 20% of their last five matches. The strongest argument for the “No” outcome is Tobol’s poor attacking consistency: the visitors average just 0.62 goals per match this season and have failed to score in 46% of their fixtures. Kairat concede an average of 1.09 goals, while Tobol, despite an xG of 1.31, convert shots into goals at a very low rate of 5%, compared with 13% for the hosts. The home side should create more chances, as reflected by their averages of 15.09 shots and 4.91 shots on target per match, but a one-sided scoring output is more likely than both teams finding the net. Tobol’s recent form is better, having scored 1.8 goals per match across their last five fixtures and recorded BTTS in 60% of them; however, this does not significantly offset their clearly low seasonal attacking efficiency away from home.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Kairat score an average of 1.91 goals at home, while Tobol concede 1.54 goals away, clearly strengthening the case for at least two goals in the match. The home side’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG is 1.81 compared with the 1.76 xG allowed by Tobol. The visitors score just 0.62 goals away from home and have failed to score in 46% of matches, but Kairat allow opponents 1.40 xG, so a Tobol goal remains a realistic scenario. In their last five matches, both teams recorded a high share of games with at least three goals: 80% for Kairat and 60% for Tobol. Over 1.5 goals has the strongest backing, as this line landed in 82% of Kairat’s matches and 69% of Tobol’s, while Over 2.5 goals is already much more evenly balanced.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Kairat are clear favourites, averaging 1.91 goals and winning 73% of their home matches, while Tobol win only 8% of their away games and concede an average of 1.54 goals. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 1.81 compared with Tobol’s 1.31, and they register 4.91 shots on target per match versus 3.31 for their opponents. Kairat led at the break in 36% of their home matches and have never been behind at half-time, whereas Tobol were losing at half-time in 31% of their away fixtures. The strongest signal comes from the second half: the hosts score an average of 1.09 goals after the break, while Tobol score just 0.15, with the visitors also conceding 1.00 goal in the second half. A half-time draw remains a realistic possibility, as Kairat record one in 64% of their home matches, but the hosts’ substantial overall advantage primarily points to a scenario in which Kairat lead after 45 minutes and go on to win the match.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kairat | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kairat is 67% better for: last-5 form.
3 pts / match - Kairat · 1.8 pts / match - Tobol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kairat is 72% better for: goals scored per match.
2.08 goals / match - Kairat · 1.21 goals / match - Tobol
Kairat is 111% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.63 goals / match - Kairat · 1.33 goals / match - Tobol
Kairat scores in 92% of matches (22 of 24 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 24 matches).
Tobol scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Kairat keeps a clean sheet in 50% (12 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kairat
Over / Under - Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kairat is 38% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.96 pts / match - Kairat · 1.42 pts / match - Tobol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kairat - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 71%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +7 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kairat
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Kairat | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.48 | • 2.54 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 54% | • 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 58% | 48% | ▼ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 27% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 66% | • 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 75% | 75% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Kairat 2 - 1 - 0 Tobol. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kairat vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Kairat 1:4 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kairat and Tobol?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Kairat won 2, Tobol won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kairat vs Tobol?
Kairat score 2.08 goals per game on average and Tobol 1.21. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.48 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Kairat's matches and 54% of Tobol's.
What form are Kairat and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Kairat have a 5-0-0 record (3.00 points per game) and Tobol 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kairat vs Tobol?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.