Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK: match statistics
Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kapaz played Mil Mugan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Kapaz: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Mil Mugan FK: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kapaz scores 0.81 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Mil Mugan FK scores 0.74 and concedes 1.30. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kapaz 33%, Mil Mugan FK 26%. Over 2.5: Kapaz 52%, Mil Mugan FK 33%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Kapaz has higher xG: 1.17 vs 0.91. Kapaz: 9.9 shots per match, Mil Mugan FK: 7.4.
Match halves
Kapaz: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.41. Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.44.
Goals by minute
Kapaz: 31-45+ (7 goals). Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an away win (2) — Mil Mugan concedes on average 1.21 goals away versus Kapaz conceding 1.77 at home, giving the visitors a defensive edge. Kapaz creates more chances at home (avg. 10.31 shots and 3.46 on target, xG 1.24), but a poor 7% conversion rate yields only 0.77 goals per match. Mil Mugan generates fewer shots (7.5, 2.86 on target, xG 0.95) but has a higher 12% conversion and 0.93 goals per match and a 50% rate of away clean sheets, which compensates for the lower volume of chances. In the last five matches Kapaz scored 5 and conceded 9, while Mil Mugan scored 2 and conceded 12, so both teams struggle offensively, but Kapaz has a far worse home record (goal difference -13 and 69% home losses). Taking all this into account I assign a 48% probability to an away win, 32% to a draw and 20% to a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back 'No' (both teams not to score) because the strongest signal comes from Mil Mugan: seasonal BTTS rate only 14% and just 20% in the last 5 matches. Mil Mugan averages 0.93 goals per game this season and only 0.4 in the last 5, while Kapaz has 0.54 seasonally and 1.0 in the last 5; however the home side conceded 54 goals this season versus 35 conceded by the visitors, which increases the offensive imbalance. xG shows low goal production: xG_for 0.88 for Kapaz and 0.95 for Mil Mugan, with xG_against 1.29 (Kapaz) and 1.57 (Mil Mugan), and seasonal shot conversion is 7% for the home team and 12% for the away team, so despite chances finishing remains limited. Additionally Mil Mugan has 50% clean sheets this season (Kapaz 31%), and the league BTTS level is 45% while the teams have 38% and 14%, therefore a No Goal/No BTTS scenario looks more likely. On this basis I assess probability at 75% for 'No' and 25% for 'Yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: Kapaz’s attacking xG is 0.88 while xG against Mil Mugan is 1.57, yielding roughly 1.23 expected goals for the home side; similarly Mil Mugan’s attacking xG is 0.95 and xG against Kapaz 1.29 giving ≈1.12 for the away side, totaling ≈2.35 goals. Actual seasonal goal averages are lower (Kapaz at home 0.54; Mil Mugan away 0.93 — total 1.47), but shot statistics (Kapaz 7.23 shots with 2.31 on target, Mil Mugan 7.5 with 2.86 on target) and Mil Mugan’s higher conversion 12% vs 7% indicate more created opportunities than the raw goal balance suggests. With an expected total ≈2.35 goals the Poisson distribution estimates: Over 1.5 ≈68%, Over 2.5 ≈42% and Over 3.5 ≈21% (hence Under 3.5 ≈79%). Season percentages confirm the low frequency of 4+ goal matches: Kapaz over 3.5 in 23% of cases, Mil Mugan in 21% (i.e. under 3.5 77% and 79% respectively). Therefore the strongest signal is Under 3.5 — expected total 2.35 goals and historical 21% chance of 4+ goals provide a clear edge to the under side.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X): Kapaz was level at the break in 62% of their home matches, and home fixtures finished as draws in 54% of cases, clearly favoring a draw outcome. Goal data confirm low activity in the first half — Kapaz averages 0.23 goals by half-time, Mil Mugan 0.36, and BTTS at the break is only 8% for the hosts and 14% for the visitors, so I expect few goals before the break. After the break the visitors show better metrics: they earn an average of 1.21 points in second halves versus 0.77 for the hosts, win second halves 28% vs 15%, and have a higher xG (0.95 vs 0.88) and shot conversion 12% vs 7%, thus X/2 is the second most likely option. Considering these comparisons I assigned X/X 36% and X/2 25%, while 1/1 only 6% and the remaining scenarios smaller shares.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kapaz | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 29% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kapaz is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
0.81 goals / match - Kapaz · 0.74 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Mil Mugan FK is 54% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Kapaz · 1.3 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Kapaz scores in 48% of matches (13 of 27 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 41% (11 of 27 matches).
Mil Mugan FK scores in 44% of matches (12 of 27 matches), while Kapaz keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kapaz
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mil Mugan FK is 47% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - Kapaz · 1.15 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kapaz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -4 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kapaz
Mil Mugan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Kapaz | Liga | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.81 | 2.58 | ▼ 2.04 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 45% | ▼ 26% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 32% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 74% | 65% | ▼ 48% |
| Goal after half-time | • 74% | 73% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Kapaz 0 - 1 - 1 Mil Mugan FK. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Kapaz 0:1 Mil Mugan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kapaz and Mil Mugan FK?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Kapaz won 0, Mil Mugan FK won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK?
Kapaz score 0.81 goals per game on average and Mil Mugan FK 0.74. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Kapaz's matches and 26% of Mil Mugan FK's.
What form are Kapaz and Mil Mugan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Kapaz have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Mil Mugan FK 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK?
The statistical background for Kapaz vs Mil Mugan FK — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.