Karvan FK vs Neftçi: match statistics
Karvan FK vs Neftçi: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Karvan FK played Neftçi in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 5 May 2026. Final score: 0:3.
Current form
Karvan FK: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Neftçi: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Karvan FK scores 0.72 and concedes 2.03 goals per match. Neftçi scores 1.66 and concedes 1.07. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Karvan FK 48%, Neftçi 52%. Over 2.5: Karvan FK 48%, Neftçi 52%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Neftçi has higher xG: 1.65 vs 0.89. Karvan FK: 6.7 shots per match, Neftçi: 12.8.
Match halves
Karvan FK: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.34. Neftçi: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Karvan FK: 31-45+ (8 goals). Neftçi: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Neftçi is the clear favorite: the visitors sit 5th in the table versus Karvan’s 12th and have 48 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 21. The gap in attacking efficiency and defense is significant — Karvan at home averages 0.8 goals scored and concedes 1.8 per match, while Neftçi away scores 1.71 and concedes only 0.93. Quality-of-chance metrics also favor the visitors: away xG for the visitors is 1.57 versus the hosts’ 0.98 at home, average on-target shots 5.5 vs 2.67 and a higher conversion rate 14% vs 10%. Form supports the advantage — Neftçi has 2.0 points per game in the last 5 matches and scored 9 goals, Karvan has 1.2 points and 5 goals; additionally the visitors have 36% clean sheets away while the hosts have only 7% at home. On this basis I tip a Neftçi win and estimate probabilities: 65% away win, 20% draw and 15% home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show comparable attacking potential this season: Karvan scores 1.6 goals on average, Neftçi 1.71, with xG of 1.73 and 1.57 respectively (total ~3.30), indicating a realistic chance for goals from both sides. A strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from Neftçi — in the last 5 matches they had BTTS 100% and averaged 1.8 goals, while Karvan in the same 5 matches scored only 1.0 and had BTTS 20%, which reduces the hosts' reliability. Karvan’s defense is vulnerable: they concede 1.2 goals seasonally, and in the last 5 matches as much as 2.2 on average; Neftçi concedes 0.93 over the season (last 5: 1.8), so at least the visitors have a high chance to score. Against this stands the league statistic — seasonal BTTS for the league is only 44% with 65% of matches producing a clean sheet expected, therefore I assign a moderate edge to 'YES' at 62% vs 38%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model values total expected goals at 2.84: 1.50 for Karvan and 1.34 for Neftçi, based on xG (Karvan attacking xG 1.73 vs Neftçi average xG conceded 1.26; Neftçi xG 1.57 vs Karvan average xG conceded 1.10). From a Poisson distribution this translates to ~78% chance for Over 1.5, ~54% for Over 2.5 and ~32% for Over 3.5. Seasonal figures confirm the offensive profile: Karvan at home has Over 1.5 in 60% of matches, while Neftçi away has 86%; additionally Karvan scored 21 and conceded 59 goals this season, Neftçi scored 48 and conceded 31. Both teams generate plenty of chances and conversion (Karvan 13.53 shots and 12% conversion, Neftçi 11.93 shots and 14% conversion) and have BTTS rates of 53% and 50% respectively, which increases the likelihood of a second goal. Given the expected 2.84 goals and the strongest probability margin (78%), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time I expect a draw, because the home side led at the break in 33% of their matches and the visitors in 21%, while half-time draws occur frequently: 53% for Karvan and 64% for Neftçi, which increases the probability of a draw at the break. After 90 minutes a Neftçi win is more likely — the visitors have 50% wins this season versus 33% for the hosts and average 1.86 points per match compared to 1.4 for Karvan. Neftçi’s strength in the second half is clear: they win 50% of second halves and average 1.21 goals after the break versus 0.8 for the hosts, and they have scored 10 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 3 for the hosts. Although xG shows 1.73 for the hosts and 1.57 for the visitors, the visitors’ advantage in final results and better second-half performances make the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at the break and away win (X/2) the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Karvan FK | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Neftçi is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Karvan FK · 2 pts / match - Neftçi
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Neftçi is 131% better for: goals scored per match.
0.72 goals / match - Karvan FK · 1.66 goals / match - Neftçi
Neftçi is 90% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.03 goals / match - Karvan FK · 1.07 goals / match - Neftçi
Karvan FK scores in 52% of matches (15 of 29 matches), while Neftçi keeps a clean sheet in 34% (10 of 29 matches).
Neftçi scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while Karvan FK keeps a clean sheet in 7% (2 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Karvan FK
Over / Under - Neftçi
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Neftçi is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Karvan FK · 1.41 pts / match - Neftçi
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Karvan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 10%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Neftçi - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Karvan FK
Neftçi
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Karvan FK | Liga | Neftçi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.76 | 2.55 | ▲ 2.72 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 48% | 45% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 48% | 46% | ▲ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 7% | 32% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 72% | 64% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | • 72% | 73% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Karvan FK 0 - 1 - 1 Neftçi. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Karvan FK vs Neftçi?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Karvan FK 0:3 Neftçi. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Karvan FK and Neftçi?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Karvan FK won 0, Neftçi won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Karvan FK vs Neftçi?
Karvan FK score 0.72 goals per game on average and Neftçi 1.66. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Karvan FK's matches and 52% of Neftçi's.
What form are Karvan FK and Neftçi in?
Over the last 5 games Karvan FK have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Neftçi 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Karvan FK vs Neftçi?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.