Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor: match statistics

Keçiörengücü have a clearly superior home record: they won their only home match to date, scoring an average of 4 goals, while Ümraniyespor lost their only away fixture. The hosts are highly clinical, converting 44% of their shots into goals, whereas the visitors, despite attempting 16 shots and registering 7 on target away from home, average just 1 goal at a 6% conversion rate. Ümraniyespor could nevertheless cause problems, as their average away xG stands at 1.78, higher than Keçiörengücü’s 1.21 at home, while both defenses allow high-quality chances: 1.84 and 1.81 xG against. The hosts’ advantage is underpinned by their better points form over the last five matches—1.4 points per game compared with 1.0—as well as significantly greater efficiency in front of goal. An open game with goals at both ends is expected, but Keçiörengücü have the better chance of securing victory.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by current form, as both teams have recorded this outcome in 80% of their last five matches. During this period, Keçiörengücü averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Ümraniyespor averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season, and their average of 2.0 goals conceded supports the expectation of a home goal. Ümraniyespor also create more chances, averaging 16 shots and 7 on target compared with Keçiörengücü’s 11 and 4.5, respectively, while their xG stands at 1.78 against 1.32 xG conceded by the hosts. Although Keçiörengücü have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, the recent defensive data and the visitors’ attacking activity clearly increase the likelihood of both sides finding the net.

The strongest and clearest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total number of goals stands at 2.85. Keçiörengücü averaged 2.4 goals scored over their last five matches, while Ümraniyespor conceded 1.6 goals per game during the same period. The visitors create plenty of chances, averaging 1.78 xG and 7.0 shots on target, while the hosts allow their opponents 1.32 xG. Both teams had matches featuring at least three goals in 60% of their last five appearances, and both sides scored in 80% of those games. The hosts’ season-long results have been more cautious, so Over 2.5 goals has only a moderate edge, whereas the 1.5 line remains clearly the most likely outcome.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Keçiörengücü win at full-time, as Ümraniyespor were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and never held the lead. Over the same period, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals before half-time compared with the visitors’ 0.4, while their first-half goal difference stood at +1 versus Ümraniyespor’s -3. After the break, Keçiörengücü have averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.6 in their last five matches, which supports the possibility of turning an evenly balanced game in their favour. In addition, the hosts have produced more in attack across full matches recently, averaging 2.4 goals per game compared with the visitors’ 1.2, while Ümraniyespor allow opponents to score 1.6 goals on average. Although the visitors create more chances in the season-long data, recording an xG of 1.78 and seven shots on target per match, their defence allows 1.81 xG and an average of 2.0 goals conceded, further strengthening the case for a later home win.