Kecskeméti TE vs Kozármisleny: match statistics

Kecskeméti TE sit 3rd, while Kozármisleny are only 16th, and the gap is reflected in their current form: the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have lost all 5. At home, Kecskeméti remain unbeaten, recording a 50% win rate and a 50% draw rate, while Kozármisleny have lost 100% of their away matches. The hosts average 1.5 goals at home with an xG of 1.40, while their opponents concede as many as 2.5 goals per away match and allow opposing teams an xG of 1.90. Kozármisleny score just 0.5 goals per away game and have failed to score in 50% of such matches, while Kecskeméti’s defence allows opponents just 0.58 xG. The hosts’ superiority in terms of structure and the visitors’ very poor run point to Kecskeméti TE as the most likely winner.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: both teams scored in 100% of Kecskeméti TE’s home matches and in 50% of Kozármisleny’s away matches, compared with the league average of 59%. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match and concede an average of 2.0 goals at home, while the visitors also have a 0% clean-sheet rate and concede as many as 2.5 goals away from home. Kozármisleny has poor away scoring efficiency, averaging just 0.5 goals and failing to score in 50% of its matches, which clearly limits confidence in the pick. At the same time, the visitors create 1.39 xG per match and register 4.67 shots on target, while Kecskeméti’s defence allows opponents 1.76 xG. In the last five matches, BTTS occurred in 80% and 60% of games respectively, so BTTS - Yes is the more likely outcome.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have played matches featuring at least 2 goals in 100% of their games so far this season. Kecskeméti have averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Kozármisleny have conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game during that period. The hosts have recently created chances worth an average of 1.66 xG, while the visitors’ defence has allowed opponents 1.87 xG, clearly supporting at least two goals in the match. The visitors are weak in attack, averaging 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches, which makes the 2.5 line more evenly balanced despite 60% and 80% of both teams’ matches in this series featuring three goals. The projected total of 2.44 goals points to a realistic 2:0 or 2:1 result, while Over 1.5 offers a clearer edge than the higher lines.

Kecskeméti TE are in clearly better form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, winning 60% of their games, while Kozármisleny have lost all five, scoring just 0.6 goals per match. At half-time, the hosts were level in 60% of their last five appearances, while the visitors were trailing at the break in 80%, pointing towards a cautious opening ending in a draw or a narrow lead for the home side. After the interval, Kecskeméti’s advantage should grow, as they average 1.2 goals in second halves, while Kozármisleny concede 1.6. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet after half-time in any of their last five matches, whereas the hosts have won the second half in 60% of cases. A draw at half-time followed by a Kecskeméti TE victory at full-time best combines their stronger late-game form with the hosts’ moderate attacking effectiveness before the break.