Keflavík vs ÍBV: match statistics

Keflavík come into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 goals and averaging 1.8 points per match, while ÍBV have failed to win any of their last five outings and have scored just 6 goals. At home, the hosts average 1.78 goals with an xG of 1.80, whereas the visitors create chances worth just 1.28 xG away from home. Keflavík also hold a significant advantage in attacking intensity, averaging 17.78 shots and 5 shots on target per match, compared with ÍBV’s 11.11 shots and 3.33 shots on target. The visitors’ defence is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.33 goals, keeping no clean sheets and losing 56% of their matches. Keflavík are not flawless defensively either, conceding 1.22 goals per game at home, but the combination of current form, the quality of chances created and ÍBV’s defensive weaknesses clearly points to a home win.

BTTS - Yes looks highly likely, as both teams have recorded this outcome exceptionally often throughout the season: Keflavík in 80% of matches and ÍBV in 78%, compared with a league average of 71%. The hosts score an average of 1.70 goals but concede 2.00, while ÍBV scores 1.44 goals and allows opponents as many as 2.33 goals per match. Particularly significant are the teams’ poor clean-sheet records: Keflavík has kept a clean sheet in only 10% of matches, while ÍBV has not kept one at all, increasing the chances of both sides finding the net. Keflavík’s attacking form remains strong, having scored 11 goals in its last five matches with an xG of 1.70, while ÍBV, despite averaging only 1.20 goals, has created chances worth 1.36 xG and faces a home defence that has recently allowed 1.85 xG. Keflavík’s BTTS rate dropping to 40% over its last five matches is a risk factor, but the overall defensive profile of both teams and ÍBV’s 80% BTTS rate during this period provide stronger support for the “yes” option.

Keflavík scores an average of 1.70 goals per match, while ÍBV concedes as many as 2.33, clearly strengthening the outlook for goals by the home side. Both teams keep clean sheets very rarely: Keflavík does so in 10% of matches, while ÍBV has yet to record one, and at least 2 goals have been scored in 90% and 89% of their respective games. In their last five matches, Keflavík averaged 2.2 goals scored, while ÍBV conceded 2.0, with their respective xG figures standing at 1.70 and 1.61 for the opposition. Furthermore, Over 2.5 goals landed in 70% of Keflavík’s matches and 67% of ÍBV’s, alongside a high league average of 3.93 goals. However, the strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the data for both teams points almost unequivocally to at least two goals.

Keflavík have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals during that period, while ÍBV have failed to win any of their games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half: the hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors did so on none of those occasions, with Keflavík averaging 1.2 goals before half-time compared with just 0.2 for ÍBV. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in their attacking quality, as their average xG stands at 1.43, while ÍBV allow opponents an xG of 1.82. After the break, Keflavík score an average of 1.1 goals, whereas ÍBV concede 1.44, further supporting the scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead until full-time.