Kelty Hearts vs Montrose: match statistics
Kelty Hearts vs Montrose: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Kelty Hearts played Montrose in League One (Scotland). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Kelty Hearts: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Montrose: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Kelty Hearts scores 0.84 and concedes 1.81 goals per match. Montrose scores 1.38 and concedes 1.78. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Kelty Hearts 56%, Montrose 63%. Over 2.5: Kelty Hearts 53%, Montrose 56%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
Montrose has higher xG: 1.13 vs 1.00. Kelty Hearts: 7.3 shots per match, Montrose: 8.8.
Match halves
Kelty Hearts: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.41. Montrose: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.75.
Goals by minute
Kelty Hearts: 16-30 (7 goals). Montrose: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Montrose appear to be the favorites: the visitors have 10 wins this season versus the hosts' 4 and sit 7th while Kelty are 10th. Offensively the gap is clear — Kelty at home average 0.5 goals per match (27 goals this season) with xG 1.05 and a conversion rate of ~7%, whereas Montrose away average 1.25 goals (44 this season) with xG 1.14 and a 15% conversion. Both teams concede heavily: Kelty concede 1.88 goals per home match and have a home goal difference of -22, Montrose concede 1.75 away and have -8; season totals are 58 and 57 goals conceded respectively. In the last 5 matches Montrose scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and average 1.4 points per match, Kelty 5 goals (1.0 per match) and 1.0 point per match; additionally Kelty have recorded no home wins (0% win rate) and failed to score in 56% of home games, which raises the draw risk. Considering Montrose’s superior finishing (15% vs 7%), lower share of scoreless matches (19% vs 56%), higher average shots (8.5 vs 7.56) and stronger form, I predict an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes — key signals: seasonal BTTS rates 56% (Kelty) vs 69% (Montrose) and 80% in the last 5 matches for both teams. Both sides are defensively vulnerable: Kelty concede 1.81 goals per game on the season, Montrose 1.75, and in the last 5 matches 1.4 and 2.2 goals per game respectively. Montrose’s attack is clearly more threatening (44 goals this season vs 27 for Kelty; 10 goals in the last 5 matches vs 5 for Kelty) and averages 3.94 shots on target vs 3.31 for Kelty, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. xG also supports BTTS: season xG for the teams is 1.11 (Kelty) and 1.14 (Montrose), while xG against are 1.27 and 1.61, meaning both teams allow over 1.2 expected goals to opponents. Low clean sheet percentages (19% and 13%) and the fact both teams have significantly higher BTTS in form than the league average of 51% justify a 75% rating for YES and 25% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Over 1.5: Kelty have season-long Over>1.5 in 94% of matches and Montrose in 81%, yielding a clear average signal for at least 2 goals. I estimate xG as the average of the team's offensive xG and the opponent's defensive xG: Kelty ~1.36 goals ((1.11 + 1.61)/2 = 1.36), Montrose ~1.21 goals ((1.14 + 1.27)/2 = 1.21), combined ~2.57 goals. Additionally both sides concede frequently (Kelty 1.81 goals conceded per match, Montrose 1.75) and BTTS occurs often for them: 56% and 69%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both teams. The projected total of 2.57 goals provides moderate support for Over 2.5 (estimated ~57%), but more strongly confirms Over 1.5 as the best pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the X/1 scenario (draw at half-time, Kelty Hearts win) because the statistics indicate an even first half and a home advantage in the second half. Kelty have a 44% home win rate versus Montrose’s mere 19% away win rate; hosts average 1.5 goals per match compared to Montrose’s 1.25, Kelty convert 17% of shots versus the visitors’ 15%, and Montrose concede an average 1.61 xG on the road. A draw at the break is realistic: Kelty were level at half-time in 5 matches (31%) and home draws also occurred in 5 matches (31%), with average first-half goals of 0.75 for Kelty and 0.5 for Montrose. Kelty frequently decide affairs after the break — they earn an average of 1.19 points in the second half versus Montrose’s 1.06 and have 7 goals in the 61–75 minute window — so the HT/FT outcome of draw at half-time and Kelty win at full-time (X/1) is the most justified.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Kelty Hearts | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Montrose is 40% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.4 pts / match - Montrose
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Montrose is 64% better for: goals scored per match.
0.84 goals / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.38 goals / match - Montrose
Kelty Hearts scores in 63% of matches (20 of 32 matches), while Montrose keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
Montrose scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Kelty Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 13% (4 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Kelty Hearts
Over / Under - Montrose
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Montrose is 16% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Kelty Hearts · 1.16 pts / match - Montrose
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Kelty Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Montrose - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Kelty Hearts
Montrose
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Kelty Hearts | Liga | Montrose | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.66 | 2.66 | ▲ 3.16 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 53% | 52% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 27% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 81% | 75% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 82% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Kelty Hearts 1 - 1 - 1 Montrose. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
The League One match finished Kelty Hearts 3:1 Montrose. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Kelty Hearts and Montrose?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Kelty Hearts won 1, Montrose won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
Kelty Hearts score 0.84 goals per game on average and Montrose 1.38. The League One average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Kelty Hearts's matches and 63% of Montrose's.
What form are Kelty Hearts and Montrose in?
Over the last 5 games Kelty Hearts have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Montrose 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose?
The statistical background for Kelty Hearts vs Montrose — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.